How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

By Alan S. Cajes, PhD[1]

Abstract: Philosophers have discussed at length the concepts of the past, the present, and the future. For some metaphysicians, the future is real. For other thinkers, the future is not real. Despite such objection, Futures Thinking and its various applications are now receiving more attention than ever before. This trend is primarily pushed by the pandemic that has changed the landscape of society and organizations. Various organizations use Futures Thinking in planning and decision making. The author discussed the contributions of philosophy to Futures Thinking, specifically to the Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development approach. He also offered suggestions on how to use AI in Futures Thinking, as well as how Futures Thinking can be used to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals. The study employed applied philosophy using critical and analytical thinking. The study showed that philosophy could add value to the Futures Thinking process by providing divergent thinking, enriching the development of future scenarios, and avoiding or minimizing cognitive biases and errors in reasoning.

Key Words: Applied Philosophy, Divergent Thinking, Futures Thinking, Scenario Development, Strategic Foresight

1. Introduction

Human beings have fundamental needs that are fulfilled by organizations. These needs include subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, and participation.[2] As the States exist to enable human flourishing,[3] organizations, which are recognized by and include the instrumentalities of the States, similarly contribute to the well being of people. Just as States create public value, organizations also create customer and stakeholder value. An organization is commonly defined as “a group of people who work together in an organized way for a shared purpose”.[4] People working in organizations help in attaining the common goal. In turn, organizations help the people in meeting their fundamental needs through the payment of wages and provision of incentives that are designed to improve human competency and motivation.

To ensure the continued success of organizations, planning and decision making tools are periodically used. A common tool used by organizations is strategic planning. This tool helps organizations in analyzing the internal and external factors that affect their operations or business. The results of the analysis can be used to formulate short-, medium- and long-term strategies and tactics to ensure a higher level of performance and success. Futures Thinking does not replace, but can enhance the strategic planning process.

2. Futures Thinking

Futures Thinking gained prominence during the Cold War when governments and organizations faced an uncertain future. It is now receiving more attention than ever largely due to the pandemic, which changed the landscape of society and organizations. Although some philosophers do not recognize that the future is real, other thinkers consider it as real. Presentism, for instance, views the past and future events as nonexistent; hence, only the present exists or real.[5] A contrary view by Eternalism argues that “there are such things as merely past and merely future entities.”[6] For the purpose of this paper, the author considers the future as “possible to be and possible not to be.”[7] Thus the future does not yet exist, but it can be made to exist. The future can be created. The future that may be created, however, may not be the future as planned. There are various factors that are beyond the control of the planners, especially in a world characterized by an accelerating volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity (VUCA) or turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity (TUNA).[8]

Futures Thinking refers to the theory and methods used in future studies or the “study of various and alternative images of the future and the worldviews and values that support them.”[9] The practical application of Futures Thinking is Foresight, which “examines emerging threats and opportunities and uses scenarios to make sense of social change.”[10]

3. Strategic Foresight-Scenario Development

Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development is used in this paper as a specific practical tool in Futures Thinking and Foresight. It involves the following key steps:

Formulate the Strategic Challenge and Framing Question. Strategic challenge refers to an adaptive problem or opportunity that must be addressed by an organization in the long term, which is normally ten years or beyond. Framing Question is the statement of the strategic challenge using outside-in-thinking, which is taking the perspective of the customers and stakeholders to answer the question: what value should be created by an organization for them?  In practical terms, this means that an organization should ask the customers and stakeholders about their needs, expectations and requirements rather than interpret these for them.

Analyze the Signals and Drivers of Change. Signals are indicators of the future that exist in the present. Before the pandemic, there were already published reports of infections due to the transfer of virus from wildlife species to humans. Localized lockdowns have also been enforced in affected areas. Thus it was not farfetched then to imagine the possibility of a global level lockdown in the future. Signals are linked to Drivers of Change, which are broad, interrelated and long-term trends that could shape the future in one way or another. A related example would be the persistent encroachment of humans on wildlife areas. This driving force is the source of the signal, which is used to “anticipate a highly uncertain future.”[11]

Develop Plausible Scenarios. Scenarios are perspectives of what the future might be since a future cannot be created with certainty. There are many possible futures, but it is hard to describe all the possible scenarios associated with such futures. Given the limitation of time and resources, developing two to four plausible scenarios is advisable for most organizations. There are a number of techniques in developing scenarios. One of the common techniques is the use of two independent and powerful critical uncertainties to create four divergent scenarios.

Discuss Implications and Paths. Implications are the effects of the plausible scenarios or the decisions that organizations must take to navigate the uncertain futures. Part of the decision making process involves choosing the pathways to achieve the organization’s desired future. The paths can be represented by the robust strategies that will help an organization succeed regardless which of the scenarios (or a combination of the scenarios) might happen in the future.

4. Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development Goals

The United Nations Sustainable Development Group recognizes the important role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to “accelerate sustainable development, while mitigating its harms.”[12] AI refers to any software technology that could “learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform human-like tasks.”[13] The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that was adopted by all UN Member States in 2015. The SDGs represent the “shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.”[14] A study published in Nature considers AI as a possible “enabler on 134 targets (79%) across all SDGs” although “59 targets (35%, also across all SDGs) may experience a negative impact from the development of AI.”[15]

For this paper, the author used Chat GPT version 4.0 to develop the future scenarios of the SDGs as presented below.

Scenario 1: "Sustainable Transformation"

In this optimistic scenario, global cooperation and commitment to the SDGs lead to significant progress by 2030.

Key Features:

Strong Global Governance: Countries work together through effective international organizations and partnerships to address global challenges.

Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in clean energy, sustainable agriculture, and healthcare technology drive progress.

Inclusive Policies: Governments implement inclusive policies that reduce inequality, improve education, and ensure gender equality.

Climate Action: Decisive actions are taken to mitigate climate change, resulting in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Economic Growth: Sustainable economic practices lead to steady growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.

Scenario 2: "Fragmented Progress"

In this scenario, progress on the SDGs is uneven, with some regions and goals advancing more than others.

Key Features:

Regional Disparities: Progress varies significantly between regions, with developed countries and some emerging economies making more headway than others.

Technological Gaps: Access to technology and innovation is uneven, leading to disparities in healthcare, education, and economic opportunities.

Partial Climate Action: Climate action is inconsistent, with some countries and sectors reducing emissions while others lag behind.

Inequality: Economic inequality persists, both within and between countries.

Scenario 3: "Status Quo Stagnation"

In this more pessimistic scenario, the world fails to make significant changes, and progress on the SDGs stagnates.

Key Features:

Weak Governance: International cooperation is limited, and global governance structures are ineffective.

Slow Technological Adoption: Innovation occurs, but it is not widely adopted or equitably distributed.

Minimal Climate Action: Efforts to combat climate change are insufficient, leading to increased environmental degradation.

Persistent Inequality: Social and economic inequalities remain largely unaddressed.

Scenario 4: "Regressive Setback"

In this worst-case scenario, global crises and conflicts lead to setbacks in achieving the SDGs.

Key Features:

Global Crises: Economic downturns, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts disrupt progress.

Technological Disruption: Technological advancements are overshadowed by misuse or lack of access, leading to greater disparities.

Environmental Catastrophe: Climate change accelerates, resulting in severe weather events, loss of biodiversity, and resource scarcity.

Social Unrest: Increasing inequality and resource shortages lead to social unrest and instability.[16]

AI can facilitate the thinking process in developing the scenarios of the future and identifying the Signal and Drivers. However, the information derived from AI can be corrected and improved by the participants of the scenario building activities. Those with backgrounds in philosophy and related fields of specialization would add value to the workshop process and the outputs.

5. Contributions of Philosophy to Futures Thinking

Thinking about the futures requires a combination of hindsight (pag-unawa sa nakaraan), insight (arok ng pag-iisip) and foresight (pananaw sa kinabukasan). A multi- and inter-disciplinary approach is therefore needed to frame the strategic challenge or opportunity, process the signals and drivers, enrich the scenarios, as well as choose the options, pathways and the robust strategies. Thus Philosophy and philosophers contribute in various ways, such as by:

• Formulating the framing question using outside-in-thinking rather than inside-out-thinking;
• Critically and rigorously analyzing the signals and drivers that are likely to shape the future of society and organizations;
• Surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios;
• Analyzing arguments to ensure sound reasoning by detecting and avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases;
• Pointing out and resolving ethical dilemmas and moral implications of the scenarios, options, strategies, including the use of AI and other sources of information;
• Creatively imagining divergent and plausible scenarios by being scenarists or futurists; and
• Choosing the best possible or robust strategies using a sound analysis of data, information, inputs and alternatives.

6. Conclusion

Philosophers can harness Philosophy and its related disciplines to enhance Futures Thinking through sound reasoning (avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases), ensuring rigorous analysis of data and information, creatively imagining divergent futures, surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios, detecting and addressing the ethical and moral implications of pathways and strategies, as well as critically examining the use of AI and related tools. The discipline can also enrich the crafting of the philosophy of organizations as they chart their future and contribute to the well-being of people and nations.

REFERENCES

Aligica, Paul D. “Analytic Narratives and Scenario Building.” Futures Research Quarterly 19-2. 2003, pp. 57-71.

Development Academy of the Philippines, UP School of Economics, and UP Population Institute. Probing Our Futures: The Philippines, 2000 A.D. PREPF, 1980

Fukuyama, Francis. eds. Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2007.

Global Business Network. Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide. The Hague, the Netherlands: Shell International, 2008.

Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press, 1962.

Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991.

UN General Assembly (UNGA). A/RES/70/1Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Resolut 25, 1–35 (2015).

Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63-5. 1985a, pp. 73-89.

______. “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review 63-6. 1985b, pp. 139-150.

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[1] Senior Executive Fellow and Vice President, Development Academy of the Philippines; Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Member, Society of Applied Philosophy; Associate Member, National Research Council of the Philippines

[2] See Max-Neef, Manfred A. Human Scale Development Application and Further Reflections. New York: The Apex Press, 1991

[3] Derived from Aristotle’s term eudaimonia that is commonly translated as happiness or welfare.

[4] Cambridge Dictionary. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/organization

[5] Ingram, David and Jonathan Tallant, "Presentism", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2023 Edition), Edward N. Zalta & Uri Nodelman (eds.), URL = <https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/presentism/>.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Thomas Aquinas used this phrase within the context of possibility and necessity. Claro Ceniza, who was the author’s professor in Advanced Metaphysics at the University of Santo Tomas Graduate School, employed it to describe the difference between contingent and necessary beings.

[8] See VUCA World. https://www.vuca-world.org/vuca-bani-rupt-tuna/

[9] Asian Development Bank. Futures Thinking in in Asia and the Pacific Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. ADB: Mandaluyong, April 2020. p. 3

[10] Ibid., p. 5

[11] Institute For The Future. Signals. https://legacy.iftf.org/what-we-do/foresight-tools/signals/

[12] Remarks of the UN Deputy Secretary General entitled “Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Development Goals” on 8 May 2024. UNSDG. https://unsdg.un.org/latest/announcements/harnessing-artificial-intelligence-sustainable-development-goals-sdgs

[13] SAS. https://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html#:~:text=Artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20makes%20it,learning%20and%20natural%20language%20processing.

[14] UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://sdgs.un.org/goals

[15] Vinuesa, R., Azizpour, H., Leite, I. et al. The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nat Commun 11, 233 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14108-y

[16] OpenAI. (2023). ChatGPT (Mar 14 version) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com/chat