How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

By Alan S. Cajes, PhD[1]

Abstract: Philosophers have discussed at length the concepts of the past, the present, and the future. For some metaphysicians, the future is real. For other thinkers, the future is not real. Despite such objection, Futures Thinking and its various applications are now receiving more attention than ever before. This trend is primarily pushed by the pandemic that has changed the landscape of society and organizations. Various organizations use Futures Thinking in planning and decision making. The author discussed the contributions of philosophy to Futures Thinking, specifically to the Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development approach. He also offered suggestions on how to use AI in Futures Thinking, as well as how Futures Thinking can be used to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals. The study employed applied philosophy using critical and analytical thinking. The study showed that philosophy could add value to the Futures Thinking process by providing divergent thinking, enriching the development of future scenarios, and avoiding or minimizing cognitive biases and errors in reasoning.

Key Words: Applied Philosophy, Divergent Thinking, Futures Thinking, Scenario Development, Strategic Foresight

1. Introduction

Human beings have fundamental needs that are fulfilled by organizations. These needs include subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, and participation.[2] As the States exist to enable human flourishing,[3] organizations, which are recognized by and include the instrumentalities of the States, similarly contribute to the well being of people. Just as States create public value, organizations also create customer and stakeholder value. An organization is commonly defined as “a group of people who work together in an organized way for a shared purpose”.[4] People working in organizations help in attaining the common goal. In turn, organizations help the people in meeting their fundamental needs through the payment of wages and provision of incentives that are designed to improve human competency and motivation.

To ensure the continued success of organizations, planning and decision making tools are periodically used. A common tool used by organizations is strategic planning. This tool helps organizations in analyzing the internal and external factors that affect their operations or business. The results of the analysis can be used to formulate short-, medium- and long-term strategies and tactics to ensure a higher level of performance and success. Futures Thinking does not replace, but can enhance the strategic planning process.

2. Futures Thinking

Futures Thinking gained prominence during the Cold War when governments and organizations faced an uncertain future. It is now receiving more attention than ever largely due to the pandemic, which changed the landscape of society and organizations. Although some philosophers do not recognize that the future is real, other thinkers consider it as real. Presentism, for instance, views the past and future events as nonexistent; hence, only the present exists or real.[5] A contrary view by Eternalism argues that “there are such things as merely past and merely future entities.”[6] For the purpose of this paper, the author considers the future as “possible to be and possible not to be.”[7] Thus the future does not yet exist, but it can be made to exist. The future can be created. The future that may be created, however, may not be the future as planned. There are various factors that are beyond the control of the planners, especially in a world characterized by an accelerating volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity (VUCA) or turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity (TUNA).[8]

Futures Thinking refers to the theory and methods used in future studies or the “study of various and alternative images of the future and the worldviews and values that support them.”[9] The practical application of Futures Thinking is Foresight, which “examines emerging threats and opportunities and uses scenarios to make sense of social change.”[10]

3. Strategic Foresight-Scenario Development

Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development is used in this paper as a specific practical tool in Futures Thinking and Foresight. It involves the following key steps:

Formulate the Strategic Challenge and Framing Question. Strategic challenge refers to an adaptive problem or opportunity that must be addressed by an organization in the long term, which is normally ten years or beyond. Framing Question is the statement of the strategic challenge using outside-in-thinking, which is taking the perspective of the customers and stakeholders to answer the question: what value should be created by an organization for them?  In practical terms, this means that an organization should ask the customers and stakeholders about their needs, expectations and requirements rather than interpret these for them.

Analyze the Signals and Drivers of Change. Signals are indicators of the future that exist in the present. Before the pandemic, there were already published reports of infections due to the transfer of virus from wildlife species to humans. Localized lockdowns have also been enforced in affected areas. Thus it was not farfetched then to imagine the possibility of a global level lockdown in the future. Signals are linked to Drivers of Change, which are broad, interrelated and long-term trends that could shape the future in one way or another. A related example would be the persistent encroachment of humans on wildlife areas. This driving force is the source of the signal, which is used to “anticipate a highly uncertain future.”[11]

Develop Plausible Scenarios. Scenarios are perspectives of what the future might be since a future cannot be created with certainty. There are many possible futures, but it is hard to describe all the possible scenarios associated with such futures. Given the limitation of time and resources, developing two to four plausible scenarios is advisable for most organizations. There are a number of techniques in developing scenarios. One of the common techniques is the use of two independent and powerful critical uncertainties to create four divergent scenarios.

Discuss Implications and Paths. Implications are the effects of the plausible scenarios or the decisions that organizations must take to navigate the uncertain futures. Part of the decision making process involves choosing the pathways to achieve the organization’s desired future. The paths can be represented by the robust strategies that will help an organization succeed regardless which of the scenarios (or a combination of the scenarios) might happen in the future.

4. Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development Goals

The United Nations Sustainable Development Group recognizes the important role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to “accelerate sustainable development, while mitigating its harms.”[12] AI refers to any software technology that could “learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform human-like tasks.”[13] The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that was adopted by all UN Member States in 2015. The SDGs represent the “shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.”[14] A study published in Nature considers AI as a possible “enabler on 134 targets (79%) across all SDGs” although “59 targets (35%, also across all SDGs) may experience a negative impact from the development of AI.”[15]

For this paper, the author used Chat GPT version 4.0 to develop the future scenarios of the SDGs as presented below.

Scenario 1: "Sustainable Transformation"

In this optimistic scenario, global cooperation and commitment to the SDGs lead to significant progress by 2030.

Key Features:

Strong Global Governance: Countries work together through effective international organizations and partnerships to address global challenges.

Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in clean energy, sustainable agriculture, and healthcare technology drive progress.

Inclusive Policies: Governments implement inclusive policies that reduce inequality, improve education, and ensure gender equality.

Climate Action: Decisive actions are taken to mitigate climate change, resulting in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Economic Growth: Sustainable economic practices lead to steady growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.

Scenario 2: "Fragmented Progress"

In this scenario, progress on the SDGs is uneven, with some regions and goals advancing more than others.

Key Features:

Regional Disparities: Progress varies significantly between regions, with developed countries and some emerging economies making more headway than others.

Technological Gaps: Access to technology and innovation is uneven, leading to disparities in healthcare, education, and economic opportunities.

Partial Climate Action: Climate action is inconsistent, with some countries and sectors reducing emissions while others lag behind.

Inequality: Economic inequality persists, both within and between countries.

Scenario 3: "Status Quo Stagnation"

In this more pessimistic scenario, the world fails to make significant changes, and progress on the SDGs stagnates.

Key Features:

Weak Governance: International cooperation is limited, and global governance structures are ineffective.

Slow Technological Adoption: Innovation occurs, but it is not widely adopted or equitably distributed.

Minimal Climate Action: Efforts to combat climate change are insufficient, leading to increased environmental degradation.

Persistent Inequality: Social and economic inequalities remain largely unaddressed.

Scenario 4: "Regressive Setback"

In this worst-case scenario, global crises and conflicts lead to setbacks in achieving the SDGs.

Key Features:

Global Crises: Economic downturns, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts disrupt progress.

Technological Disruption: Technological advancements are overshadowed by misuse or lack of access, leading to greater disparities.

Environmental Catastrophe: Climate change accelerates, resulting in severe weather events, loss of biodiversity, and resource scarcity.

Social Unrest: Increasing inequality and resource shortages lead to social unrest and instability.[16]

AI can facilitate the thinking process in developing the scenarios of the future and identifying the Signal and Drivers. However, the information derived from AI can be corrected and improved by the participants of the scenario building activities. Those with backgrounds in philosophy and related fields of specialization would add value to the workshop process and the outputs.

5. Contributions of Philosophy to Futures Thinking

Thinking about the futures requires a combination of hindsight (pag-unawa sa nakaraan), insight (arok ng pag-iisip) and foresight (pananaw sa kinabukasan). A multi- and inter-disciplinary approach is therefore needed to frame the strategic challenge or opportunity, process the signals and drivers, enrich the scenarios, as well as choose the options, pathways and the robust strategies. Thus Philosophy and philosophers contribute in various ways, such as by:

• Formulating the framing question using outside-in-thinking rather than inside-out-thinking;
• Critically and rigorously analyzing the signals and drivers that are likely to shape the future of society and organizations;
• Surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios;
• Analyzing arguments to ensure sound reasoning by detecting and avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases;
• Pointing out and resolving ethical dilemmas and moral implications of the scenarios, options, strategies, including the use of AI and other sources of information;
• Creatively imagining divergent and plausible scenarios by being scenarists or futurists; and
• Choosing the best possible or robust strategies using a sound analysis of data, information, inputs and alternatives.

6. Conclusion

Philosophers can harness Philosophy and its related disciplines to enhance Futures Thinking through sound reasoning (avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases), ensuring rigorous analysis of data and information, creatively imagining divergent futures, surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios, detecting and addressing the ethical and moral implications of pathways and strategies, as well as critically examining the use of AI and related tools. The discipline can also enrich the crafting of the philosophy of organizations as they chart their future and contribute to the well-being of people and nations.

REFERENCES

Aligica, Paul D. “Analytic Narratives and Scenario Building.” Futures Research Quarterly 19-2. 2003, pp. 57-71.

Development Academy of the Philippines, UP School of Economics, and UP Population Institute. Probing Our Futures: The Philippines, 2000 A.D. PREPF, 1980

Fukuyama, Francis. eds. Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2007.

Global Business Network. Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide. The Hague, the Netherlands: Shell International, 2008.

Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press, 1962.

Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991.

UN General Assembly (UNGA). A/RES/70/1Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Resolut 25, 1–35 (2015).

Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63-5. 1985a, pp. 73-89.

______. “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review 63-6. 1985b, pp. 139-150.

---

[1] Senior Executive Fellow and Vice President, Development Academy of the Philippines; Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Member, Society of Applied Philosophy; Associate Member, National Research Council of the Philippines

[2] See Max-Neef, Manfred A. Human Scale Development Application and Further Reflections. New York: The Apex Press, 1991

[3] Derived from Aristotle’s term eudaimonia that is commonly translated as happiness or welfare.

[4] Cambridge Dictionary. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/organization

[5] Ingram, David and Jonathan Tallant, "Presentism", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2023 Edition), Edward N. Zalta & Uri Nodelman (eds.), URL = <https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/presentism/>.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Thomas Aquinas used this phrase within the context of possibility and necessity. Claro Ceniza, who was the author’s professor in Advanced Metaphysics at the University of Santo Tomas Graduate School, employed it to describe the difference between contingent and necessary beings.

[8] See VUCA World. https://www.vuca-world.org/vuca-bani-rupt-tuna/

[9] Asian Development Bank. Futures Thinking in in Asia and the Pacific Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. ADB: Mandaluyong, April 2020. p. 3

[10] Ibid., p. 5

[11] Institute For The Future. Signals. https://legacy.iftf.org/what-we-do/foresight-tools/signals/

[12] Remarks of the UN Deputy Secretary General entitled “Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Development Goals” on 8 May 2024. UNSDG. https://unsdg.un.org/latest/announcements/harnessing-artificial-intelligence-sustainable-development-goals-sdgs

[13] SAS. https://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html#:~:text=Artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20makes%20it,learning%20and%20natural%20language%20processing.

[14] UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://sdgs.un.org/goals

[15] Vinuesa, R., Azizpour, H., Leite, I. et al. The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nat Commun 11, 233 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14108-y

[16] OpenAI. (2023). ChatGPT (Mar 14 version) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com/chat

Some Takeaways from "Frontiers of Development Economics: The Future in Perspective"

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

This publication by the World Bank  provides a useful reference in understanding economic development. Some of the key takeaways include the following: there is no single formula for development; economic development is not just about infrastructure and economic activities, but also covers knowledge, institutions, and culture; the new growth theory underscores the role of ideas in promoting economic growth; the proper implementation of good ideas can increase the country’s total productivity; innovation serves as a catalyst to hasten the occurrence of development, and  innovation can be used to offset diminishing returns.  Indeed, sound ideas are part of human capital. Thus entrepreneurial ability, as a form of human capital, can help accelerate the process of economic development.

Structural changes and better economic outcomes can also be fostered by scientific ideas and rationality.  That is why the importation of ideas is generally accepted as a strategy to stimulate economic development. However, ideas are an insufficient, although a necessary, condition for development. Bad ideas have wreaked havoc on the economies of many nations. Hence, the rejection of bad ideas is as important as the adoption of good ideas. 

The story of economic development is paved with good and bad ideas. This is clearly demonstrated by the experiences of several socialist countries. In the case of the Philippines, the infusion of liberal ideas eventually awakened the consciousness of the natives about the bad economic situation they had after more than three centuries of Spanish domination. The lessons that the Ilustrados gained, by visiting and studying in other countries, enabled them to distinguish between right and wrong political and economic ideas.

The post-World War II Philippines was generally a poignant reminder of the failures of the import-substitution industrialization. This idea was adopted despite the fact that it was meant for industrial countries. To some extent, import-substitution industrialization produced some benefits, such as the development of local industries. However, in the long run, it became outdated and obsolete compared to what our Asian neighbors have adopted. Thus, the abandonment of unsound ideas is as good as the reception of rational ideas.

In the end, good ideas are like appropriate technologies. They have to be tested and analyzed to ensure that they fit the context of the place where they are to be planted. During my humble experiences in cooperative development, I have first-hand knowledge of the fact that a model that works in one cooperative won’t work when transplanted to another cooperative. There are several factors to be considered, such as the culture of the cooperative members and officers, their risk appetite, the type of business they are into, the supplies of raw materials, infrastructure support, access to funding and coaches, etc. 

Reference

Meier, Gerald M.; Stiglitz, Joseph E. [editors]. Frontiers of development economics : the future in perspective (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/586861468762924370/Frontiers-of-development-economics-the-future-in-perspective

Geotourism and the Bohol Island Geopark

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Photo taken from https://geopark.bohol.gov.ph/en/geosites/

This article basically attempts to answer the question: what form of tourism is appropriate for the Bohol Island UNESCO Global Geopark?

On 24 May 2023, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Executive Board designated Bohol Island as the first UNESCO Global Geopark of the Philippines, thanks to the efforts of the various proponents and stakeholders. A UNESCO Global Geopark is a single, unified geographical area “where sites and landscapes of international geological significance are managed with a holistic concept of protection, education and sustainable development (UNESCO)”. 

In the case of the Bohol Island UNESCO Global Geopark, it covers “8808 square kilometers of land and surrounding lush marine protected areas (UNESCO)”. The covered geosites include the following: caves, sinkholes and cone karst, including the Chocolate Hills; Danajon Double Barrier Reef; uplifted marine terrace in Maribojoc and Loon; rupture site in Inabanga; Alicia Schist; springs; waterfalls, etc.

For the geosites, the appropriate form of tourism is geotourism, a form of tourism “that sustains or enhances the distinctive geographical character of a place—its environment, heritage, aesthetics, culture, and the well-being of its residents (National Geographic). Geotourism adheres to 13 principles (see below), including the following: adherence to the principles of the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics for Tourism and the principles of the Cultural Tourism Charter established by the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS). 

Article 2.4-2.5 of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism are particularly instructive:

• Article 2.4. Tourism infrastructure should be designed and tourism activities programmed in such a way as to protect the natural heritage composed of ecosystems and biodiversity and to preserve endangered species of wildlife; the stakeholders in tourism development, and especially professionals, should agree to the imposition of limitations or constraints on their activities when these are exercised in particularly sensitive areas: desert, polar or high mountain regions, coastal areas, tropical forests or wetlands, propitious to the creation of nature reserves or protected areas;
• Article 2.5. Nature tourism and ecotourism are recognized as being particularly conducive to enriching and enhancing the standing of tourism, provided they respect the natural heritage and local populations and are in keeping with the carrying capacity of the sites

A relevant ICOMOS principle states: “In any case, with the future in mind, it is the respect of the world, cultural and natural heritage which must take precedence over any other considerations however justified these may be from a social, political or economic point of view.”

Given the above principles, it is imperative that a third party evaluation study be done (Principle 13) to determine the state of the geotourism areas and destinations, as well as propose the strategies or ways forward. Lest we forget, the UNESCO Global Geoparks have four years before a thorough re-examination will be done. The review will determine if the UNESCO Global Geopark:

• Still fulfills the criteria and its status will be extended to another 4 years (green card);
• No longer fulfills the criteria and appropriate steps must be undertaken in a period of 2 years (yellow card);
• Will lose its status as a UNESCO Global Geopark should it fails to fulfill the criteria within 2 years after getting a yellow card (red card).

 Other possible immediate actions:

1. Ensure that the Protected Area Management Board is functional and meets regularly;
2. Establish some kind of multisectoral Geotourism Council to include the concerned residents, tourist associations, tour operators, tourism industry representatives, etc. to forge consensus on allowable, prohibited or restorative acts in the covered areas;
3. Tourism industry to pursue industry self-regulation to prevent violations from its industry players;
4. LGUs and concerned agencies to inform, educate and communicate to the stakeholders the honors, benefits and accountabilities of being a UNESCO Global Geopark, as well as properly enforce their respective mandates;
5. Identify the geosites (e.g., which hills are part of the Chocolate Hills), put up easy to spot and read billboards or markings, and engage the affected stakeholders in a “Binol-anon” way of conversation;
6. For the Provincial Government of Bohol, consider re-certification under the ISO 14000 (Environmental Management System) to encourage tourist establishments to conform or get certified under relevant ISO standards, such as ISO 18065:2015 for tourism and related services.

 The Geotourism Principles

1. Integrity of a Place - Enhance the geographical character of the destination by developing and improving it in ways distinctive to the locale. Encourage market differentiation and cultural pride in ways that are reflective of natural and cultural heritage.

2. International Codes - Adhere to the principles embodied in the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics for Tourism and the principles of the Cultural Tourism Charter established by the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS).

3. Community Involvement - Base tourism on community resources to the extent possible, encouraging local small businesses and civic groups to build partnerships to promote and provide a distinctive, honest visitor experience and market their locales effectively. Help businesses develop approaches to tourism that build on the area’s nature, history, and culture, including food and drink, artisanship, performance arts, and the like.

4. Community Benefit - Encourage micro- to medium-size enterprises and tourism business strategies that emphasize economic and social benefits to involved communities, especially poverty alleviation, with clear communication of the destination stewardship policies required to maintain those benefits.

5. Tourist Satisfaction - Ensure that satisfied, excited geotravelers bring new vacation stories home and send friends off to experience the same thing, thus providing continuing demand for the destination.

6. Conservation of Resources - Encourage businesses to minimize water pollution, solid waste, energy consumption, water usage, landscaping chemicals, and overly bright nighttime lighting. Advertise these measures in a way that attracts the large, environmentally sympathetic tourist market.

7. Protection and Enhancement of Destination Appeal - Encourage the destination to sustain natural habitats, heritage sites, aesthetic appeal, and local culture. Prevent degradation by keeping the volume of tourists within maximum acceptable limits. Seek business models that can operate profitably within those limits. Use persuasion, incentives, and legal enforcement as needed.

8. Planning - Recognize and respect immediate economic need without sacrificing long-term character and the geotourism potential of the destination. Where tourism attracts in-migration of workers, develop new communities that themselves constitute a destination enhancement. Strive to diversify the economy and limit population influx to sustainable levels. Adopt public strategies for mitigating practices that are incompatible with geotourism and damaging to the image of the destination.

9. Land Use - Anticipate development pressures and apply techniques to prevent undesired overdevelopment and degradation. Contain resort and vacation-home sprawl, especially on coasts and islands, so as to retain a diversity of natural and scenic environments and ensure continued resident access to waterfronts. Encourage major self-contained tourism attractions, such as large-scale theme parks and convention centers unrelated to character of place, to be sited in needier locations with no significant ecological, scenic, or cultural assets.

10. Market Diversity - Encourage a full range of appropriate food and lodging facilities, so as to appeal to the entire demographic spectrum of the geotourism market and so maximize economic resiliency over both the short and long term.

11. Interactive Interpretation - Engage both visitors and hosts in learning about the place. Encourage residents to show off the natural and cultural heritage of their communities, so that tourists gain a richer experience and residents develop pride in their locales.

12. Market Selectivity - Encourage growth in tourism market segments most likely to appreciate, respect, and disseminate information about the distinctive assets of the locale.

13. Evaluation - Establish an evaluation process to be conducted on a regular basis by an independent panel representing all stakeholders' interests, and publicize evaluation results.

Disclosure: the author is a Bol-anon by consanguinity, a long time resident of Batuan in Bohol, an associate member of the National Geographic and the International Ecotourism Society, and not a recipient of any funding or support in writing this article.

On Data and Development Economics

 by Alan A. Cajes, PhD

In an article entitled Development Economics, Debraj Ray discusses and explains some concepts that are central to the study of development economics, which studies the economies of the developing countries. The concepts include the conventional growth theory (movement to a steady state), the notion of convergence (getting some parameters right), nonconvergence viewpoint (movement along different paths due to differences in histories, institutions, etc.), and the issues related to the microeconomics of development (credit market, collective action for public goods, conflicts, institutional effects).

Although the author describes the concepts and how such concepts affect our understanding of development path of nations, Ray does not take any side. What can be inferred from the discussion is the non-empirical approach in discussing the concepts. The concepts, for instance, could not be used to assess the predicament of the Philippines as a national economy. Some of the concepts are explained via the experiences of different economies that have varied historical and related experiences. The author, however, points to the direction of empirical research in development economics. As researchers use information and communication technology (ICT)-aided empirical studies, there is a direction towards induction based on observations and hard knowledge.

I learned a lot while trying to grasp the various concepts presented in the article. This reminds me of a Facebook post by an economist from another university claiming that economics is moving away from theoretical analysis (theory explains the data) to data-based analysis (facts first, theory later). This also reminds me of Dr. Cielito Habito’s “PiTik” test or the use of key economic indicators like “presyo, trabahao and kita” (prices, jobs and incomes). 

In one session where I had the opportunity to sit down with friends of Dr. Habito, he explained to us the other dimensions of economic development. He did not begin with theories or concepts. He showed us health and environment-related data. One has something to do with the issue of sustainability. Overfishing and extensive farming, which do not respect the ecological limits, will eventually constrain production, and then later the market prices.

Thus, the challenge posed by climate change, sea-level rise and related disasters will have to be factored in by specific communities and local government units (LGUs) because the negative effects are differentiated. Specific data on these issues will have to be gathered and analyzed so that these inform local policies and decisions.

I affirm this observation given some experiences I have in conducting natural resources and vulnerability assessments of some LGUs with funding support from the Climate Change Commission. What is evident is that communities need to generate quantitative data on the ground to inform economic policies. Thus, data science and data analytics is gaining ground as a tool for analysis by various disciplines, including economics.