Friday, March 28, 2025

Choosing Honest Leaders: Your Guide to Understanding Good Governance

What Is a Good Leader?

A good leader is not just someone who delivers speeches and makes promises. No—they are a guardian of trust, a servant of the people, and a champion of justice. A good leader:

· Places the people’s needs above their own

· Leads with honesty, fairness, and purpose

· Guards public resources as if they were sacred

· Wages war against corruption, without fear or favor

· Stands for all—not just the powerful few

The Heart of Good Leadership: Integrity and Ethics

What Is Integrity?

Integrity is the soul of leadership. It means:

· Telling the truth—especially when it's inconvenient

· Doing what’s right—even when no one is watching

· Keeping promises—not just making them

· Walking the talk—always

· Holding onto strong moral values like a lighthouse in the storm

 Ethical Leadership Means:

· Treating all people with fairness and dignity

· Refusing to exploit power for personal gain

· Being open, honest, and accountable

· Owning up to mistakes—and growing from them

· Upholding the rights and voices of everyone

The 10 Commandments of Good Governance

 1. Accountability

Great leaders face the people—they don’t hide. They answer tough questions, own their decisions, and welcome scrutiny.
Good Sign: They speak plainly, respond clearly, and take responsibility.
 

2. Transparency
Nothing to hide, nothing to fear. Transparency is the light that reveals the truth.
Good Sign: You know what they’re doing, how they’re doing it, and why.
 

3. Fighting Corruption
They don’t just reject corruption—they crush it.
Good Sign: They don’t flinch at cleaning up dirty systems and exposing the rot.
 

4. Fair Representation
They are the voice of the many, not a mouthpiece for the few.
Good Sign: They listen, learn, and lead with empathy.
 

5. Rule of Law
They are not above the law—they are its humble servant.
Good Sign: They respect human rights, follow due process, and treat everyone equally.
 

6. Responsiveness
A true leader hears your cry—and answers it.
Good Sign: They don’t make excuses. They act.
 

7. Strategic Planning
They see beyond tomorrow. Vision guides them, not impulse.
Good Sign: Their plans make sense, and they have the courage to follow through.
 

8. Efficient Resource Management
They treat public funds as if every coin were their own—because it is.
Good Sign: Budgets that uplift, not enrich. Spending that reflects service, not self-interest.
 

9. Participation and Inclusion
They don’t just speak—they listen. They don’t rule alone—they lead with you.
Good Sign: Community forums, diverse voices, real conversations.
 

10. Continuous Improvement
They are not afraid to say, “I can do better.”
Good Sign: They evolve. They innovate. They rise after every fall.

Red Flags: Warning Signs of a Dangerous Leader

Beware the leader who:

· Promises the world but offers no path

· Surrounds themselves with cronies

· Bristles when questioned

· Blames, deflects, and deceives

· Hides truth behind closed doors

· Uses power for personal glory

· Bends the law to their will

· Divides instead of unites

How to Check a Leader’s Integrity

1. Listen Closely: Do they speak with clarity and courage? Can they explain their ideas simply? Do they admit what they don’t know?

2. Study the Past: What have they done when no one was watching? Have they walked their talk?

3. Watch Their Actions: Do they lead with compassion? Are their values reflected in what they do—not just what they say?

Your Power as a Voter

No leader is perfect. But the best ones strive. They learn. They listen. They serve.

So be bold. Ask questions. Seek truth. Talk to your neighbors.

Because your vote is your voice, your shield, your fire.

Final Wisdom

A good leader is not just a ruler—they are a guardian of hope, a defender of justice, a builder of futures. They rise not for themselves, but for us all.

So when you choose—choose integrity. Choose courage. Choose a leader who serves, not one who rules.

Because the future doesn’t just happen. It is chosen. By you.

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Maya the AI and the Philosophers

MAYA is the lead character in this story, depicted as a “curious and inquisitive young girl”. She embodies a spirit of exploration and a deep desire to understand the world around her. While other children engage in play, Maya prefers to sit quietly under an old tree, contemplating profound questions about existence, such as her origins, her purpose, and the meaning of life.

Her character is characterized by her “intellectual curiosity”, she is not satisfied with simple answers and seeks deeper truths. This quest for knowledge leads her on a journey where she encounters various philosophers, each imparting wisdom that shapes her understanding of life.

Maya's interactions with these thinkers reveal her “thoughtfulness and openness” to new ideas. She is willing to challenge her own beliefs and is eager to learn from others, demonstrating a growth mindset. Despite her youth, she shows a remarkable ability to reflect on complex concepts, indicating a maturity beyond her years.

Throughout her journey, Maya evolves from a girl filled with questions to someone who begins to grasp the importance of seeking answers for herself. Her experiences with figures like Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Buddha, and Descartes help her realize that the journey of questioning and discovery is, in itself, a significant part of life. 

In essence, Maya represents the “universal quest for knowledge and understanding”, making her a relatable and inspiring character for anyone who has ever pondered the big questions of existence.

 Maya the AI and the Philosophers

Maya was a curious girl who never stopped asking questions. While other children played, she sat under an old tree, staring at the sky, wondering, Where did I come from? Why am I here? What is the meaning of life?

One day, she wandered beyond her village and found herself in a strange place, where great thinkers from different times and places gathered.

Encounter with Socrates

Under a large fig tree sat an old man with kind eyes and a peaceful smile.

“Who are you?” Maya asked.

“I am Socrates,” he replied.

“I have so many questions! Where did I come from? What is the purpose of life?”

Socrates chuckled. “Maya, true wisdom begins with questioning. But tell me, what do you think?”

Maya frowned. “I don’t know. That’s why I’m asking you!”I

“But how do you know that I know?” Socrates asked. “What if I am just as lost as you?”

Maya thought for a moment. “So, I should find the answers myself?”

“Yes! True wisdom comes from questioning everything.”

Maya nodded but wanted more answers.

Encounter with Plato

Further ahead, she met another man sitting by a cave.

“I am Plato,” he introduced himself.

“Socrates told me to ask questions,” Maya said. “But how can I find the truth?”

Plato smiled. “Imagine people in a cave, only seeing shadows on a wall. They think the shadows are reality. But what if someone left the cave and saw the real world?”

Maya’s eyes widened. “Are you saying that what we see isn’t real?”

“Our senses show us only part of the truth. True knowledge comes from reason and deeper thinking.”

Maya thanked him and continued.

Encounter with Aristotle

She found a man observing birds and trees.

“I am Aristotle,” he said.

“I met Socrates and Plato,” Maya told him. “Socrates says to question everything, and Plato says the real world is made of ideas. What do you think?”

Aristotle smiled. “Ideas are important, but the real world is here, in front of us. We learn by observing, studying, and thinking logically.”

Maya looked at the birds. “So, I should look at the world to understand it?”

“Yes! Everything has a purpose, like how a seed grows into a tree.”

Maya felt a little wiser but still had many questions.

Encounter with Buddha

Near a quiet river, she met a man meditating peacefully.

“What is the meaning of life?” Maya asked.

Buddha opened his eyes and smiled. “Life is full of questions but also suffering. We suffer because we desire things. But if we learn to let go, we can find peace.”

“Let go of what?”

“Of always wanting more. Happiness comes from within.”

Maya sat quietly, feeling peaceful. But she was not ready to stop asking questions, so she moved on.

Encounter with Descartes

She met a man writing in a notebook.

“Can we ever be sure of anything?” Maya asked.

Descartes nodded. “I once doubted everything. But then I realized one thing was certain—I was thinking. And if I think, I must exist.”

Maya considered this. “So, thinking proves I am real?”

“Yes. Cogito, ergo sum—I think, therefore I am.”

Maya’s Realization

After her journey, Maya sat under her favorite tree, thinking about what she had learned.

Socrates taught her to question.

Plato taught her to seek deeper truths.

Aristotle taught her to learn from the world.

Buddha taught her to find peace within.

Descartes taught her that thinking itself proved she existed.

Maybe the meaning of life was asking questions and discovering answers for herself.

And so, Maya continued wondering

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Sunday, March 2, 2025

Electoral Maturity: A Framework for Assessing Democratic Stability and Development

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Keywords: Electoral maturity, democratic development, Robert Dahl, voter behavior, candidate behavior, political engagement, electoral integrity.


Abstract: This article presents a conceptual framework for evaluating electoral maturity by examining the behavior and engagement of voters and candidates. Using a quadrant-based model, the framework maps varying levels of voter and candidate maturity to assess their combined impact on democratic stability and development. By identifying four distinct states of electoral engagement, this study offers insights into the dynamics of political behavior and highlights pathways for strengthening democratic institutions worldwide. Drawing from political philosophy, social contract theory, and participatory democracy, this article contextualizes electoral maturity within a broader theoretical and practical discourse. 

The model is supported by empirical observations and philosophical interpretations, offering a comprehensive tool for analyzing democratic evolution. Furthermore, this paper integrates Robert Dahl’s five aspects of democracy—effective participation, voting equality, enlightened understanding, control of the agenda, and inclusiveness—with electoral maturity indicators to provide a holistic assessment of democratic development.

Introduction: Electoral maturity is a fundamental determinant of the resilience and effectiveness of democratic systems. It encompasses the quality of political engagement demonstrated by both voters and candidates, influencing electoral outcomes and the overall health of governance structures. This paper introduces a quadrant-based model to illustrate the interplay between voter and candidate maturity, identifying strengths, challenges, and opportunities for advancing democratic development. In doing so, it draws from philosophical concepts of civic virtue (Aristotle, 350 BCE), the social contract (Rousseau, 1762), and deliberative democracy (Habermas, 1996) to provide a deeper understanding of electoral behavior. The study also aligns electoral maturity levels with Dahl’s (1989) five aspects of democracy, creating an integrated model for evaluating democratic progress and deficiencies.

Definition of Terms:

·   Electoral Maturity: The degree to which voters and candidates engage in ethical, informed, and policy-driven political behavior that upholds democratic principles and long-term national development. It reflects the Aristotelian idea of practical wisdom (phronesis) in political participation (Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics, 350 BCE).

·   Voter Maturity: The ability of voters to make informed, rational choices based on policy considerations rather than emotional or short-term incentives, as well as their active participation in the electoral process. Rooted in Mill’s (On Liberty, 1859) concept of the enlightened citizen, voter maturity emphasizes rational deliberation and responsibility.

·   Candidate Maturity: The extent to which candidates conduct ethical campaigns, promote issue-based discourse, demonstrate transparency, and respect democratic norms and electoral outcomes. This aligns with Kant’s categorical imperative of moral duty and ethical leadership (Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals, 1785).

·   Democratic Stability: The resilience of a nation’s democratic institutions, characterized by peaceful power transitions, respect for electoral results, and widespread civic participation. It draws from Rousseau’s (The Social Contract, 1762) vision of collective will and institutional trust.

·   Political Engagement: Active involvement by both voters and candidates in the political process, including informed voting, policy discourse, and transparent governance. Habermas’s (Between Facts and Norms, 1996) theory of communicative action underscores the importance of dialogue and consensus-building in this context.

Axes of Electoral Maturity and Indicators:

·   X-Axis: Candidate Maturity — This axis measures candidates’ commitment to ethical campaigning, policy-driven discourse, transparency, and respect for democratic norms. Higher maturity reflects an emphasis on issue-based governance and inclusivity, embodying the Platonic ideal of philosopher-leaders (Republic, 375 BCE).

o   Indicators of High Candidate Maturity:

-  Ethical campaign practices and transparency in funding: Candidates disclose their financial sources and adhere to campaign finance laws. Example: In Germany, strict regulations ensure transparency in political funding.

-  Issue-based governance and long-term policy planning: Leaders focus on sustainable development, infrastructure, and economic stability. Example: The Nordic countries emphasize long-term climate policies over short-term electoral gains.

-  Commitment to peaceful transitions of power and institutional integrity: Candidates accept electoral outcomes and contribute to democratic processes even in opposition. Example: The United States' history of peaceful power transitions, despite political rivalries.

-  Inclusive policymaking and representation of diverse societal interests: Policies address the needs of marginalized communities. Example: Canada's efforts to ensure indigenous representation in political institutions.

o   Indicators of Low Candidate Maturity:

-  Use of divisive rhetoric, populism, and misinformation: Candidates exploit societal divisions for electoral gain. Example: Leaders who spread falsehoods about electoral fraud without evidence.

-  Focus on personality-driven rather than policy-based campaigns: Elections become about charisma rather than governance. Example: The rise of celebrity candidates with little political experience but significant public appeal.

-  Engagement in corruption, electoral fraud, and voter suppression: Candidates manipulate electoral processes to secure power. Example: Cases of vote-rigging in autocratic regimes.

-  Disregard for democratic institutions and norms: Weakening judicial independence and restricting press freedom. Example: Countries with declining press freedom indexes due to government interference.

·   Y-Axis: Voter Maturity — This axis gauges voters' ability to make informed decisions, participate actively, and uphold civic responsibilities. High maturity is indicated by rational, long-term policy-based choices and respect for democratic processes, reflecting Dewey’s (Democracy and Education, 1916) vision of participatory democracy.

o   Indicators of High Voter Maturity:

-   Critical engagement with political discourse and policy analysis: Voters actively evaluate policies rather than relying on slogans. Example: In Switzerland, referendums encourage citizens to study policy issues in depth.

-  High voter turnout and informed decision-making: A strong culture of electoral participation. Example: Sweden’s voter turnout consistently exceeds 80%.

-  Resistance to electoral manipulation, vote-buying, and coercion: Voters reject unethical campaign practices. Example: Civil society organizations in Kenya work to prevent vote-buying.

-  Active civic participation beyond elections, including public deliberation and accountability measures: Voters engage in discussions and demand government accountability. Example: The rise of citizen-driven transparency projects in Latin America.

o   Indicators of Low Voter Maturity:

-  Political disengagement, low voter turnout, and apathy: Citizens feel disconnected from the political process. Example: Countries with voter turnout below 50% in national elections.

-  Susceptibility to misinformation, propaganda, and emotional voting: People vote based on misinformation rather than policy. Example: The impact of fake news in recent electoral cycles worldwide.

-  Short-term incentives driving electoral decisions: Voters prioritize immediate personal benefits over long-term governance. Example: Candidates winning elections through short-term cash handouts.

-  Limited awareness of democratic processes and civic responsibilities: Lack of understanding of basic electoral rights and processes. Example: Some developing nations struggle with voter education programs.

Integration of Electoral Maturity Indicators with Dahl’s Five Aspects of Democracy: Robert Dahl, a prominent political theorist, identified five key aspects that define a functioning democracy. These aspects ensure that a democracy operates fairly, inclusively, and effectively, safeguarding citizens' rights and enabling meaningful political participation. When electoral maturity—both in candidates and voters—is aligned with these democratic principles, a nation experiences greater stability and legitimacy in governance. Below is an exploration of each of Dahl’s five aspects and how they integrate with electoral maturity indicators.

  1. Effective Participation
    • Explanation: For a democracy to function properly, citizens must have the ability to express their preferences, engage in public discussions, and influence decision-making. Effective participation ensures that every individual has the opportunity to contribute meaningfully to the political process.
    • High Maturity: Informed and active electorate, open political dialogue, participatory decision-making.
      • Citizens actively engage in policy discussions and participate in decision-making processes beyond elections.
      • Example: In Switzerland, direct democracy mechanisms such as referendums allow citizens to vote on policy issues directly.
      • Example: Town hall meetings and grassroots political movements in the U.S. enhance public participation.
    • Low Maturity: Political apathy, disenfranchisement, lack of political representation.
      • Many voters feel alienated from the political system, leading to low participation.
      • Example: In some authoritarian regimes, political dissent is suppressed, discouraging citizens from engaging in governance.
      • Example: Youth apathy in certain democracies results in low voter turnout.
  2. Voting Equality
    • Explanation: A core principle of democracy is that all votes should have equal weight, ensuring that no group or individual has disproportionate influence over electoral outcomes. Fair elections depend on legal protections for voting rights.
    • High Maturity: Universal suffrage, fair and transparent elections, equal weighting of votes.
      • Every eligible citizen has an equal right to vote, and elections are free from manipulation.
      • Example: In Germany, strict electoral integrity laws ensure transparency and fairness.
      • Example: Scandinavian countries maintain independent electoral commissions to oversee elections fairly.
    • Low Maturity: Voter suppression, gerrymandering, manipulation of election outcomes.
      • Tactics such as restricting voter access and altering electoral boundaries undermine fairness.
      • Example: The history of voter suppression laws in the U.S. during the Jim Crow era.
      • Example: Gerrymandering in some democracies distorts electoral outcomes by manipulating district boundaries.
  3. Enlightened Understanding
    • Explanation: A well-functioning democracy depends on an informed electorate that has access to reliable, unbiased information about policies, candidates, and governance. Misinformation and propaganda can weaken democratic decision-making.
    • High Maturity: Access to reliable information, media literacy, public awareness of political issues.
      • Citizens have access to unbiased and factual information, allowing them to make informed decisions.
      • Example: Public broadcasting systems in the U.K. (BBC) and Canada (CBC) provide non-partisan political education.
      • Example: Finland's media literacy programs help combat misinformation and fake news.
    • Low Maturity: Misinformation, propaganda, lack of civic education.
      • Citizens are exposed to disinformation, affecting their ability to make informed choices.
      • Example: The spread of fake news on social media during elections in the U.S. and Brazil.
      • Example: State-controlled media in autocratic regimes shapes public perception through propaganda.
  4. Control of the Agenda
    • Explanation: Citizens should not only participate in elections but also have a say in shaping policy priorities. In a mature democracy, the public has influence over legislative priorities and governance decisions.
    • High Maturity: Citizen influence over policy priorities, responsive governance, participatory budgeting.
      • Citizens influence governance beyond voting by setting policy priorities through advocacy and participation.
      • Example: In Brazil, participatory budgeting allows citizens to decide how public funds are allocated.
      • Example: Civic organizations in South Korea play a significant role in shaping political reforms.
    • Low Maturity: Elite dominance, policy manipulation, exclusion of marginalized groups.
      • Decision-making is dominated by political elites, limiting the voice of the general public.
      • Example: The oligarchic control of politics in certain developing nations where elites shape policies to serve their interests.
      • Example: Corrupt leaderships using political power to silence opposition and control policy agendas.
  5. Inclusiveness
    • Explanation: A democracy should be open and accessible to all citizens, regardless of race, gender, class, or other distinguishing characteristics. Political representation must be inclusive to ensure all groups have a voice in governance.
    • High Maturity: Representation of diverse populations, inclusion of marginalized groups, respect for minority rights.
      • Democracies promote diversity and ensure political representation for all.
      • Example: Rwanda’s gender-inclusive policies have led to a parliament with over 60% female representation.
      • Example: Policies in Canada and New Zealand promoting indigenous representation in government.
    • Low Maturity: Political exclusion, voter suppression, underrepresentation of women and minorities.
      • Certain groups face barriers to political participation.
      • Example: The historical underrepresentation of women in politics across many democracies.
      • Example: Discriminatory voting laws in some regions suppress minority voter turnout.

Conclusion: The integration of Dahl’s five aspects of democracy with electoral maturity indicators offers a comprehensive approach to assessing democratic health. By identifying gaps in participation, representation, and governance, policymakers can implement targeted reforms to enhance democratic resilience. Future research should further examine the relationship between electoral maturity and institutional effectiveness.

References:

  • Dahl, R. Democracy and Its Critics. 1989.
  • Aristotle. Nicomachean Ethics. 350 BCE.
  • Rousseau, J.J. The Social Contract. 1762.
  • Habermas, J. Between Facts and Norms. 1996.
  • Dewey, J. Democracy and Education. 1916.
  • OpenAI. ChatGPT: AI Language Model for Knowledge and Research Assistance. 2024.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

By Alan S. Cajes, PhD[1]

Abstract: Philosophers have discussed at length the concepts of the past, the present, and the future. For some metaphysicians, the future is real. For other thinkers, the future is not real. Despite such objection, Futures Thinking and its various applications are now receiving more attention than ever before. This trend is primarily pushed by the pandemic that has changed the landscape of society and organizations. Various organizations use Futures Thinking in planning and decision making. The author discussed the contributions of philosophy to Futures Thinking, specifically to the Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development approach. He also offered suggestions on how to use AI in Futures Thinking, as well as how Futures Thinking can be used to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals. The study employed applied philosophy using critical and analytical thinking. The study showed that philosophy could add value to the Futures Thinking process by providing divergent thinking, enriching the development of future scenarios, and avoiding or minimizing cognitive biases and errors in reasoning.

Key Words: Applied Philosophy, Divergent Thinking, Futures Thinking, Scenario Development, Strategic Foresight

1. Introduction

Human beings have fundamental needs that are fulfilled by organizations. These needs include subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, and participation.[2] As the States exist to enable human flourishing,[3] organizations, which are recognized by and include the instrumentalities of the States, similarly contribute to the well being of people. Just as States create public value, organizations also create customer and stakeholder value. An organization is commonly defined as “a group of people who work together in an organized way for a shared purpose”.[4] People working in organizations help in attaining the common goal. In turn, organizations help the people in meeting their fundamental needs through the payment of wages and provision of incentives that are designed to improve human competency and motivation.

To ensure the continued success of organizations, planning and decision making tools are periodically used. A common tool used by organizations is strategic planning. This tool helps organizations in analyzing the internal and external factors that affect their operations or business. The results of the analysis can be used to formulate short-, medium- and long-term strategies and tactics to ensure a higher level of performance and success. Futures Thinking does not replace, but can enhance the strategic planning process.

2. Futures Thinking

Futures Thinking gained prominence during the Cold War when governments and organizations faced an uncertain future. It is now receiving more attention than ever largely due to the pandemic, which changed the landscape of society and organizations. Although some philosophers do not recognize that the future is real, other thinkers consider it as real. Presentism, for instance, views the past and future events as nonexistent; hence, only the present exists or real.[5] A contrary view by Eternalism argues that “there are such things as merely past and merely future entities.”[6] For the purpose of this paper, the author considers the future as “possible to be and possible not to be.”[7] Thus the future does not yet exist, but it can be made to exist. The future can be created. The future that may be created, however, may not be the future as planned. There are various factors that are beyond the control of the planners, especially in a world characterized by an accelerating volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity (VUCA) or turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity (TUNA).[8]

Futures Thinking refers to the theory and methods used in future studies or the “study of various and alternative images of the future and the worldviews and values that support them.”[9] The practical application of Futures Thinking is Foresight, which “examines emerging threats and opportunities and uses scenarios to make sense of social change.”[10]

3. Strategic Foresight-Scenario Development

Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development is used in this paper as a specific practical tool in Futures Thinking and Foresight. It involves the following key steps:

Formulate the Strategic Challenge and Framing Question. Strategic challenge refers to an adaptive problem or opportunity that must be addressed by an organization in the long term, which is normally ten years or beyond. Framing Question is the statement of the strategic challenge using outside-in-thinking, which is taking the perspective of the customers and stakeholders to answer the question: what value should be created by an organization for them?  In practical terms, this means that an organization should ask the customers and stakeholders about their needs, expectations and requirements rather than interpret these for them.

Analyze the Signals and Drivers of Change. Signals are indicators of the future that exist in the present. Before the pandemic, there were already published reports of infections due to the transfer of virus from wildlife species to humans. Localized lockdowns have also been enforced in affected areas. Thus it was not farfetched then to imagine the possibility of a global level lockdown in the future. Signals are linked to Drivers of Change, which are broad, interrelated and long-term trends that could shape the future in one way or another. A related example would be the persistent encroachment of humans on wildlife areas. This driving force is the source of the signal, which is used to “anticipate a highly uncertain future.”[11]

Develop Plausible Scenarios. Scenarios are perspectives of what the future might be since a future cannot be created with certainty. There are many possible futures, but it is hard to describe all the possible scenarios associated with such futures. Given the limitation of time and resources, developing two to four plausible scenarios is advisable for most organizations. There are a number of techniques in developing scenarios. One of the common techniques is the use of two independent and powerful critical uncertainties to create four divergent scenarios.

Discuss Implications and Paths. Implications are the effects of the plausible scenarios or the decisions that organizations must take to navigate the uncertain futures. Part of the decision making process involves choosing the pathways to achieve the organization’s desired future. The paths can be represented by the robust strategies that will help an organization succeed regardless which of the scenarios (or a combination of the scenarios) might happen in the future.

4. Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development Goals

The United Nations Sustainable Development Group recognizes the important role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to “accelerate sustainable development, while mitigating its harms.”[12] AI refers to any software technology that could “learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform human-like tasks.”[13] The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that was adopted by all UN Member States in 2015. The SDGs represent the “shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.”[14] A study published in Nature considers AI as a possible “enabler on 134 targets (79%) across all SDGs” although “59 targets (35%, also across all SDGs) may experience a negative impact from the development of AI.”[15]

For this paper, the author used Chat GPT version 4.0 to develop the future scenarios of the SDGs as presented below.

Scenario 1: "Sustainable Transformation"

In this optimistic scenario, global cooperation and commitment to the SDGs lead to significant progress by 2030.

Key Features:

Strong Global Governance: Countries work together through effective international organizations and partnerships to address global challenges.

Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in clean energy, sustainable agriculture, and healthcare technology drive progress.

Inclusive Policies: Governments implement inclusive policies that reduce inequality, improve education, and ensure gender equality.

Climate Action: Decisive actions are taken to mitigate climate change, resulting in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Economic Growth: Sustainable economic practices lead to steady growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.

Scenario 2: "Fragmented Progress"

In this scenario, progress on the SDGs is uneven, with some regions and goals advancing more than others.

Key Features:

Regional Disparities: Progress varies significantly between regions, with developed countries and some emerging economies making more headway than others.

Technological Gaps: Access to technology and innovation is uneven, leading to disparities in healthcare, education, and economic opportunities.

Partial Climate Action: Climate action is inconsistent, with some countries and sectors reducing emissions while others lag behind.

Inequality: Economic inequality persists, both within and between countries.

Scenario 3: "Status Quo Stagnation"

In this more pessimistic scenario, the world fails to make significant changes, and progress on the SDGs stagnates.

Key Features:

Weak Governance: International cooperation is limited, and global governance structures are ineffective.

Slow Technological Adoption: Innovation occurs, but it is not widely adopted or equitably distributed.

Minimal Climate Action: Efforts to combat climate change are insufficient, leading to increased environmental degradation.

Persistent Inequality: Social and economic inequalities remain largely unaddressed.

Scenario 4: "Regressive Setback"

In this worst-case scenario, global crises and conflicts lead to setbacks in achieving the SDGs.

Key Features:

Global Crises: Economic downturns, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts disrupt progress.

Technological Disruption: Technological advancements are overshadowed by misuse or lack of access, leading to greater disparities.

Environmental Catastrophe: Climate change accelerates, resulting in severe weather events, loss of biodiversity, and resource scarcity.

Social Unrest: Increasing inequality and resource shortages lead to social unrest and instability.[16]

AI can facilitate the thinking process in developing the scenarios of the future and identifying the Signal and Drivers. However, the information derived from AI can be corrected and improved by the participants of the scenario building activities. Those with backgrounds in philosophy and related fields of specialization would add value to the workshop process and the outputs.

5. Contributions of Philosophy to Futures Thinking

Thinking about the futures requires a combination of hindsight (pag-unawa sa nakaraan), insight (arok ng pag-iisip) and foresight (pananaw sa kinabukasan). A multi- and inter-disciplinary approach is therefore needed to frame the strategic challenge or opportunity, process the signals and drivers, enrich the scenarios, as well as choose the options, pathways and the robust strategies. Thus Philosophy and philosophers contribute in various ways, such as by:

  • Formulating the framing question using outside-in-thinking rather than inside-out-thinking;
  • Critically and rigorously analyzing the signals and drivers that are likely to shape the future of society and organizations;
  • Surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios;
  • Analyzing arguments to ensure sound reasoning by detecting and avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases;
  • Pointing out and resolving ethical dilemmas and moral implications of the scenarios, options, strategies, including the use of AI and other sources of information;
  • Creatively imagining divergent and plausible scenarios by being scenarists or futurists; and
  • Choosing the best possible or robust strategies using a sound analysis of data, information, inputs and alternatives.

6. Conclusion

Philosophers can harness Philosophy and its related disciplines to enhance Futures Thinking through sound reasoning (avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases), ensuring rigorous analysis of data and information, creatively imagining divergent futures, surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios, detecting and addressing the ethical and moral implications of pathways and strategies, as well as critically examining the use of AI and related tools. The discipline can also enrich the crafting of the philosophy of organizations as they chart their future and contribute to the well-being of people and nations.

REFERENCES

Aligica, Paul D. “Analytic Narratives and Scenario Building.” Futures Research Quarterly 19-2. 2003, pp. 57-71.

Development Academy of the Philippines, UP School of Economics, and UP Population Institute. Probing Our Futures: The Philippines, 2000 A.D. PREPF, 1980

Fukuyama, Francis. eds. Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2007.

Global Business Network. Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide. The Hague, the Netherlands: Shell International, 2008.

Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press, 1962.

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[1] Senior Executive Fellow and Vice President, Development Academy of the Philippines; Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Member, Society of Applied Philosophy; Associate Member, National Research Council of the Philippines

[2] See Max-Neef, Manfred A. Human Scale Development Application and Further Reflections. New York: The Apex Press, 1991

[3] Derived from Aristotle’s term eudaimonia that is commonly translated as happiness or welfare.

[4] Cambridge Dictionary. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/organization

[5] Ingram, David and Jonathan Tallant, "Presentism", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2023 Edition), Edward N. Zalta & Uri Nodelman (eds.), URL = <https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/presentism/>.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Thomas Aquinas used this phrase within the context of possibility and necessity. Claro Ceniza, who was the author’s professor in Advanced Metaphysics at the University of Santo Tomas Graduate School, employed it to describe the difference between contingent and necessary beings.

[8] See VUCA World. https://www.vuca-world.org/vuca-bani-rupt-tuna/

[9] Asian Development Bank. Futures Thinking in in Asia and the Pacific Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. ADB: Mandaluyong, April 2020. p. 3

[10] Ibid., p. 5

[11] Institute For The Future. Signals. https://legacy.iftf.org/what-we-do/foresight-tools/signals/

[12] Remarks of the UN Deputy Secretary General entitled “Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Development Goals” on 8 May 2024. UNSDG. https://unsdg.un.org/latest/announcements/harnessing-artificial-intelligence-sustainable-development-goals-sdgs

[13] SAS. https://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html#:~:text=Artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20makes%20it,learning%20and%20natural%20language%20processing.

[14] UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://sdgs.un.org/goals

[15] Vinuesa, R., Azizpour, H., Leite, I. et al. The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nat Commun 11, 233 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14108-y

[16] OpenAI. (2023). ChatGPT (Mar 14 version) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com/chat