How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

How Philosophy Contributes to Futures Thinking?

By Alan S. Cajes, PhD[1]

Abstract: Philosophers have discussed at length the concepts of the past, the present, and the future. For some metaphysicians, the future is real. For other thinkers, the future is not real. Despite such objection, Futures Thinking and its various applications are now receiving more attention than ever before. This trend is primarily pushed by the pandemic that has changed the landscape of society and organizations. Various organizations use Futures Thinking in planning and decision making. The author discussed the contributions of philosophy to Futures Thinking, specifically to the Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development approach. He also offered suggestions on how to use AI in Futures Thinking, as well as how Futures Thinking can be used to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals. The study employed applied philosophy using critical and analytical thinking. The study showed that philosophy could add value to the Futures Thinking process by providing divergent thinking, enriching the development of future scenarios, and avoiding or minimizing cognitive biases and errors in reasoning.

Key Words: Applied Philosophy, Divergent Thinking, Futures Thinking, Scenario Development, Strategic Foresight

1. Introduction

Human beings have fundamental needs that are fulfilled by organizations. These needs include subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, and participation.[2] As the States exist to enable human flourishing,[3] organizations, which are recognized by and include the instrumentalities of the States, similarly contribute to the well being of people. Just as States create public value, organizations also create customer and stakeholder value. An organization is commonly defined as “a group of people who work together in an organized way for a shared purpose”.[4] People working in organizations help in attaining the common goal. In turn, organizations help the people in meeting their fundamental needs through the payment of wages and provision of incentives that are designed to improve human competency and motivation.

To ensure the continued success of organizations, planning and decision making tools are periodically used. A common tool used by organizations is strategic planning. This tool helps organizations in analyzing the internal and external factors that affect their operations or business. The results of the analysis can be used to formulate short-, medium- and long-term strategies and tactics to ensure a higher level of performance and success. Futures Thinking does not replace, but can enhance the strategic planning process.

2. Futures Thinking

Futures Thinking gained prominence during the Cold War when governments and organizations faced an uncertain future. It is now receiving more attention than ever largely due to the pandemic, which changed the landscape of society and organizations. Although some philosophers do not recognize that the future is real, other thinkers consider it as real. Presentism, for instance, views the past and future events as nonexistent; hence, only the present exists or real.[5] A contrary view by Eternalism argues that “there are such things as merely past and merely future entities.”[6] For the purpose of this paper, the author considers the future as “possible to be and possible not to be.”[7] Thus the future does not yet exist, but it can be made to exist. The future can be created. The future that may be created, however, may not be the future as planned. There are various factors that are beyond the control of the planners, especially in a world characterized by an accelerating volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity (VUCA) or turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity (TUNA).[8]

Futures Thinking refers to the theory and methods used in future studies or the “study of various and alternative images of the future and the worldviews and values that support them.”[9] The practical application of Futures Thinking is Foresight, which “examines emerging threats and opportunities and uses scenarios to make sense of social change.”[10]

3. Strategic Foresight-Scenario Development

Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development is used in this paper as a specific practical tool in Futures Thinking and Foresight. It involves the following key steps:

Formulate the Strategic Challenge and Framing Question. Strategic challenge refers to an adaptive problem or opportunity that must be addressed by an organization in the long term, which is normally ten years or beyond. Framing Question is the statement of the strategic challenge using outside-in-thinking, which is taking the perspective of the customers and stakeholders to answer the question: what value should be created by an organization for them?  In practical terms, this means that an organization should ask the customers and stakeholders about their needs, expectations and requirements rather than interpret these for them.

Analyze the Signals and Drivers of Change. Signals are indicators of the future that exist in the present. Before the pandemic, there were already published reports of infections due to the transfer of virus from wildlife species to humans. Localized lockdowns have also been enforced in affected areas. Thus it was not farfetched then to imagine the possibility of a global level lockdown in the future. Signals are linked to Drivers of Change, which are broad, interrelated and long-term trends that could shape the future in one way or another. A related example would be the persistent encroachment of humans on wildlife areas. This driving force is the source of the signal, which is used to “anticipate a highly uncertain future.”[11]

Develop Plausible Scenarios. Scenarios are perspectives of what the future might be since a future cannot be created with certainty. There are many possible futures, but it is hard to describe all the possible scenarios associated with such futures. Given the limitation of time and resources, developing two to four plausible scenarios is advisable for most organizations. There are a number of techniques in developing scenarios. One of the common techniques is the use of two independent and powerful critical uncertainties to create four divergent scenarios.

Discuss Implications and Paths. Implications are the effects of the plausible scenarios or the decisions that organizations must take to navigate the uncertain futures. Part of the decision making process involves choosing the pathways to achieve the organization’s desired future. The paths can be represented by the robust strategies that will help an organization succeed regardless which of the scenarios (or a combination of the scenarios) might happen in the future.

4. Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development Goals

The United Nations Sustainable Development Group recognizes the important role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to “accelerate sustainable development, while mitigating its harms.”[12] AI refers to any software technology that could “learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform human-like tasks.”[13] The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that was adopted by all UN Member States in 2015. The SDGs represent the “shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future.”[14] A study published in Nature considers AI as a possible “enabler on 134 targets (79%) across all SDGs” although “59 targets (35%, also across all SDGs) may experience a negative impact from the development of AI.”[15]

For this paper, the author used Chat GPT version 4.0 to develop the future scenarios of the SDGs as presented below.

Scenario 1: "Sustainable Transformation"

In this optimistic scenario, global cooperation and commitment to the SDGs lead to significant progress by 2030.

Key Features:

Strong Global Governance: Countries work together through effective international organizations and partnerships to address global challenges.

Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in clean energy, sustainable agriculture, and healthcare technology drive progress.

Inclusive Policies: Governments implement inclusive policies that reduce inequality, improve education, and ensure gender equality.

Climate Action: Decisive actions are taken to mitigate climate change, resulting in significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Economic Growth: Sustainable economic practices lead to steady growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.

Scenario 2: "Fragmented Progress"

In this scenario, progress on the SDGs is uneven, with some regions and goals advancing more than others.

Key Features:

Regional Disparities: Progress varies significantly between regions, with developed countries and some emerging economies making more headway than others.

Technological Gaps: Access to technology and innovation is uneven, leading to disparities in healthcare, education, and economic opportunities.

Partial Climate Action: Climate action is inconsistent, with some countries and sectors reducing emissions while others lag behind.

Inequality: Economic inequality persists, both within and between countries.

Scenario 3: "Status Quo Stagnation"

In this more pessimistic scenario, the world fails to make significant changes, and progress on the SDGs stagnates.

Key Features:

Weak Governance: International cooperation is limited, and global governance structures are ineffective.

Slow Technological Adoption: Innovation occurs, but it is not widely adopted or equitably distributed.

Minimal Climate Action: Efforts to combat climate change are insufficient, leading to increased environmental degradation.

Persistent Inequality: Social and economic inequalities remain largely unaddressed.

Scenario 4: "Regressive Setback"

In this worst-case scenario, global crises and conflicts lead to setbacks in achieving the SDGs.

Key Features:

Global Crises: Economic downturns, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts disrupt progress.

Technological Disruption: Technological advancements are overshadowed by misuse or lack of access, leading to greater disparities.

Environmental Catastrophe: Climate change accelerates, resulting in severe weather events, loss of biodiversity, and resource scarcity.

Social Unrest: Increasing inequality and resource shortages lead to social unrest and instability.[16]

AI can facilitate the thinking process in developing the scenarios of the future and identifying the Signal and Drivers. However, the information derived from AI can be corrected and improved by the participants of the scenario building activities. Those with backgrounds in philosophy and related fields of specialization would add value to the workshop process and the outputs.

5. Contributions of Philosophy to Futures Thinking

Thinking about the futures requires a combination of hindsight (pag-unawa sa nakaraan), insight (arok ng pag-iisip) and foresight (pananaw sa kinabukasan). A multi- and inter-disciplinary approach is therefore needed to frame the strategic challenge or opportunity, process the signals and drivers, enrich the scenarios, as well as choose the options, pathways and the robust strategies. Thus Philosophy and philosophers contribute in various ways, such as by:

• Formulating the framing question using outside-in-thinking rather than inside-out-thinking;
• Critically and rigorously analyzing the signals and drivers that are likely to shape the future of society and organizations;
• Surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios;
• Analyzing arguments to ensure sound reasoning by detecting and avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases;
• Pointing out and resolving ethical dilemmas and moral implications of the scenarios, options, strategies, including the use of AI and other sources of information;
• Creatively imagining divergent and plausible scenarios by being scenarists or futurists; and
• Choosing the best possible or robust strategies using a sound analysis of data, information, inputs and alternatives.

6. Conclusion

Philosophers can harness Philosophy and its related disciplines to enhance Futures Thinking through sound reasoning (avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases), ensuring rigorous analysis of data and information, creatively imagining divergent futures, surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios, detecting and addressing the ethical and moral implications of pathways and strategies, as well as critically examining the use of AI and related tools. The discipline can also enrich the crafting of the philosophy of organizations as they chart their future and contribute to the well-being of people and nations.

REFERENCES

Aligica, Paul D. “Analytic Narratives and Scenario Building.” Futures Research Quarterly 19-2. 2003, pp. 57-71.

Development Academy of the Philippines, UP School of Economics, and UP Population Institute. Probing Our Futures: The Philippines, 2000 A.D. PREPF, 1980

Fukuyama, Francis. eds. Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2007.

Global Business Network. Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide. The Hague, the Netherlands: Shell International, 2008.

Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press, 1962.

Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991.

UN General Assembly (UNGA). A/RES/70/1Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Resolut 25, 1–35 (2015).

Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63-5. 1985a, pp. 73-89.

______. “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review 63-6. 1985b, pp. 139-150.

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[1] Senior Executive Fellow and Vice President, Development Academy of the Philippines; Member, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Member, Society of Applied Philosophy; Associate Member, National Research Council of the Philippines

[2] See Max-Neef, Manfred A. Human Scale Development Application and Further Reflections. New York: The Apex Press, 1991

[3] Derived from Aristotle’s term eudaimonia that is commonly translated as happiness or welfare.

[4] Cambridge Dictionary. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/organization

[5] Ingram, David and Jonathan Tallant, "Presentism", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2023 Edition), Edward N. Zalta & Uri Nodelman (eds.), URL = <https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/presentism/>.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Thomas Aquinas used this phrase within the context of possibility and necessity. Claro Ceniza, who was the author’s professor in Advanced Metaphysics at the University of Santo Tomas Graduate School, employed it to describe the difference between contingent and necessary beings.

[8] See VUCA World. https://www.vuca-world.org/vuca-bani-rupt-tuna/

[9] Asian Development Bank. Futures Thinking in in Asia and the Pacific Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers. ADB: Mandaluyong, April 2020. p. 3

[10] Ibid., p. 5

[11] Institute For The Future. Signals. https://legacy.iftf.org/what-we-do/foresight-tools/signals/

[12] Remarks of the UN Deputy Secretary General entitled “Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable Development Goals” on 8 May 2024. UNSDG. https://unsdg.un.org/latest/announcements/harnessing-artificial-intelligence-sustainable-development-goals-sdgs

[13] SAS. https://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html#:~:text=Artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20makes%20it,learning%20and%20natural%20language%20processing.

[14] UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. https://sdgs.un.org/goals

[15] Vinuesa, R., Azizpour, H., Leite, I. et al. The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nat Commun 11, 233 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14108-y

[16] OpenAI. (2023). ChatGPT (Mar 14 version) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com/chat

Some Takeaways from "Frontiers of Development Economics: The Future in Perspective"

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

This publication by the World Bank  provides a useful reference in understanding economic development. Some of the key takeaways include the following: there is no single formula for development; economic development is not just about infrastructure and economic activities, but also covers knowledge, institutions, and culture; the new growth theory underscores the role of ideas in promoting economic growth; the proper implementation of good ideas can increase the country’s total productivity; innovation serves as a catalyst to hasten the occurrence of development, and  innovation can be used to offset diminishing returns.  Indeed, sound ideas are part of human capital. Thus entrepreneurial ability, as a form of human capital, can help accelerate the process of economic development.

Structural changes and better economic outcomes can also be fostered by scientific ideas and rationality.  That is why the importation of ideas is generally accepted as a strategy to stimulate economic development. However, ideas are an insufficient, although a necessary, condition for development. Bad ideas have wreaked havoc on the economies of many nations. Hence, the rejection of bad ideas is as important as the adoption of good ideas. 

The story of economic development is paved with good and bad ideas. This is clearly demonstrated by the experiences of several socialist countries. In the case of the Philippines, the infusion of liberal ideas eventually awakened the consciousness of the natives about the bad economic situation they had after more than three centuries of Spanish domination. The lessons that the Ilustrados gained, by visiting and studying in other countries, enabled them to distinguish between right and wrong political and economic ideas.

The post-World War II Philippines was generally a poignant reminder of the failures of the import-substitution industrialization. This idea was adopted despite the fact that it was meant for industrial countries. To some extent, import-substitution industrialization produced some benefits, such as the development of local industries. However, in the long run, it became outdated and obsolete compared to what our Asian neighbors have adopted. Thus, the abandonment of unsound ideas is as good as the reception of rational ideas.

In the end, good ideas are like appropriate technologies. They have to be tested and analyzed to ensure that they fit the context of the place where they are to be planted. During my humble experiences in cooperative development, I have first-hand knowledge of the fact that a model that works in one cooperative won’t work when transplanted to another cooperative. There are several factors to be considered, such as the culture of the cooperative members and officers, their risk appetite, the type of business they are into, the supplies of raw materials, infrastructure support, access to funding and coaches, etc. 

Reference

Meier, Gerald M.; Stiglitz, Joseph E. [editors]. Frontiers of development economics : the future in perspective (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/586861468762924370/Frontiers-of-development-economics-the-future-in-perspective

Geotourism and the Bohol Island Geopark

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Photo taken from https://geopark.bohol.gov.ph/en/geosites/

This article basically attempts to answer the question: what form of tourism is appropriate for the Bohol Island UNESCO Global Geopark?

On 24 May 2023, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Executive Board designated Bohol Island as the first UNESCO Global Geopark of the Philippines, thanks to the efforts of the various proponents and stakeholders. A UNESCO Global Geopark is a single, unified geographical area “where sites and landscapes of international geological significance are managed with a holistic concept of protection, education and sustainable development (UNESCO)”. 

In the case of the Bohol Island UNESCO Global Geopark, it covers “8808 square kilometers of land and surrounding lush marine protected areas (UNESCO)”. The covered geosites include the following: caves, sinkholes and cone karst, including the Chocolate Hills; Danajon Double Barrier Reef; uplifted marine terrace in Maribojoc and Loon; rupture site in Inabanga; Alicia Schist; springs; waterfalls, etc.

For the geosites, the appropriate form of tourism is geotourism, a form of tourism “that sustains or enhances the distinctive geographical character of a place—its environment, heritage, aesthetics, culture, and the well-being of its residents (National Geographic). Geotourism adheres to 13 principles (see below), including the following: adherence to the principles of the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics for Tourism and the principles of the Cultural Tourism Charter established by the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS). 

Article 2.4-2.5 of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism are particularly instructive:

• Article 2.4. Tourism infrastructure should be designed and tourism activities programmed in such a way as to protect the natural heritage composed of ecosystems and biodiversity and to preserve endangered species of wildlife; the stakeholders in tourism development, and especially professionals, should agree to the imposition of limitations or constraints on their activities when these are exercised in particularly sensitive areas: desert, polar or high mountain regions, coastal areas, tropical forests or wetlands, propitious to the creation of nature reserves or protected areas;
• Article 2.5. Nature tourism and ecotourism are recognized as being particularly conducive to enriching and enhancing the standing of tourism, provided they respect the natural heritage and local populations and are in keeping with the carrying capacity of the sites

A relevant ICOMOS principle states: “In any case, with the future in mind, it is the respect of the world, cultural and natural heritage which must take precedence over any other considerations however justified these may be from a social, political or economic point of view.”

Given the above principles, it is imperative that a third party evaluation study be done (Principle 13) to determine the state of the geotourism areas and destinations, as well as propose the strategies or ways forward. Lest we forget, the UNESCO Global Geoparks have four years before a thorough re-examination will be done. The review will determine if the UNESCO Global Geopark:

• Still fulfills the criteria and its status will be extended to another 4 years (green card);
• No longer fulfills the criteria and appropriate steps must be undertaken in a period of 2 years (yellow card);
• Will lose its status as a UNESCO Global Geopark should it fails to fulfill the criteria within 2 years after getting a yellow card (red card).

 Other possible immediate actions:

1. Ensure that the Protected Area Management Board is functional and meets regularly;
2. Establish some kind of multisectoral Geotourism Council to include the concerned residents, tourist associations, tour operators, tourism industry representatives, etc. to forge consensus on allowable, prohibited or restorative acts in the covered areas;
3. Tourism industry to pursue industry self-regulation to prevent violations from its industry players;
4. LGUs and concerned agencies to inform, educate and communicate to the stakeholders the honors, benefits and accountabilities of being a UNESCO Global Geopark, as well as properly enforce their respective mandates;
5. Identify the geosites (e.g., which hills are part of the Chocolate Hills), put up easy to spot and read billboards or markings, and engage the affected stakeholders in a “Binol-anon” way of conversation;
6. For the Provincial Government of Bohol, consider re-certification under the ISO 14000 (Environmental Management System) to encourage tourist establishments to conform or get certified under relevant ISO standards, such as ISO 18065:2015 for tourism and related services.

 The Geotourism Principles

1. Integrity of a Place - Enhance the geographical character of the destination by developing and improving it in ways distinctive to the locale. Encourage market differentiation and cultural pride in ways that are reflective of natural and cultural heritage.

2. International Codes - Adhere to the principles embodied in the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics for Tourism and the principles of the Cultural Tourism Charter established by the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS).

3. Community Involvement - Base tourism on community resources to the extent possible, encouraging local small businesses and civic groups to build partnerships to promote and provide a distinctive, honest visitor experience and market their locales effectively. Help businesses develop approaches to tourism that build on the area’s nature, history, and culture, including food and drink, artisanship, performance arts, and the like.

4. Community Benefit - Encourage micro- to medium-size enterprises and tourism business strategies that emphasize economic and social benefits to involved communities, especially poverty alleviation, with clear communication of the destination stewardship policies required to maintain those benefits.

5. Tourist Satisfaction - Ensure that satisfied, excited geotravelers bring new vacation stories home and send friends off to experience the same thing, thus providing continuing demand for the destination.

6. Conservation of Resources - Encourage businesses to minimize water pollution, solid waste, energy consumption, water usage, landscaping chemicals, and overly bright nighttime lighting. Advertise these measures in a way that attracts the large, environmentally sympathetic tourist market.

7. Protection and Enhancement of Destination Appeal - Encourage the destination to sustain natural habitats, heritage sites, aesthetic appeal, and local culture. Prevent degradation by keeping the volume of tourists within maximum acceptable limits. Seek business models that can operate profitably within those limits. Use persuasion, incentives, and legal enforcement as needed.

8. Planning - Recognize and respect immediate economic need without sacrificing long-term character and the geotourism potential of the destination. Where tourism attracts in-migration of workers, develop new communities that themselves constitute a destination enhancement. Strive to diversify the economy and limit population influx to sustainable levels. Adopt public strategies for mitigating practices that are incompatible with geotourism and damaging to the image of the destination.

9. Land Use - Anticipate development pressures and apply techniques to prevent undesired overdevelopment and degradation. Contain resort and vacation-home sprawl, especially on coasts and islands, so as to retain a diversity of natural and scenic environments and ensure continued resident access to waterfronts. Encourage major self-contained tourism attractions, such as large-scale theme parks and convention centers unrelated to character of place, to be sited in needier locations with no significant ecological, scenic, or cultural assets.

10. Market Diversity - Encourage a full range of appropriate food and lodging facilities, so as to appeal to the entire demographic spectrum of the geotourism market and so maximize economic resiliency over both the short and long term.

11. Interactive Interpretation - Engage both visitors and hosts in learning about the place. Encourage residents to show off the natural and cultural heritage of their communities, so that tourists gain a richer experience and residents develop pride in their locales.

12. Market Selectivity - Encourage growth in tourism market segments most likely to appreciate, respect, and disseminate information about the distinctive assets of the locale.

13. Evaluation - Establish an evaluation process to be conducted on a regular basis by an independent panel representing all stakeholders' interests, and publicize evaluation results.

Disclosure: the author is a Bol-anon by consanguinity, a long time resident of Batuan in Bohol, an associate member of the National Geographic and the International Ecotourism Society, and not a recipient of any funding or support in writing this article.

On Data and Development Economics

 by Alan A. Cajes, PhD

In an article entitled Development Economics, Debraj Ray discusses and explains some concepts that are central to the study of development economics, which studies the economies of the developing countries. The concepts include the conventional growth theory (movement to a steady state), the notion of convergence (getting some parameters right), nonconvergence viewpoint (movement along different paths due to differences in histories, institutions, etc.), and the issues related to the microeconomics of development (credit market, collective action for public goods, conflicts, institutional effects).

Although the author describes the concepts and how such concepts affect our understanding of development path of nations, Ray does not take any side. What can be inferred from the discussion is the non-empirical approach in discussing the concepts. The concepts, for instance, could not be used to assess the predicament of the Philippines as a national economy. Some of the concepts are explained via the experiences of different economies that have varied historical and related experiences. The author, however, points to the direction of empirical research in development economics. As researchers use information and communication technology (ICT)-aided empirical studies, there is a direction towards induction based on observations and hard knowledge.

I learned a lot while trying to grasp the various concepts presented in the article. This reminds me of a Facebook post by an economist from another university claiming that economics is moving away from theoretical analysis (theory explains the data) to data-based analysis (facts first, theory later). This also reminds me of Dr. Cielito Habito’s “PiTik” test or the use of key economic indicators like “presyo, trabahao and kita” (prices, jobs and incomes). 

In one session where I had the opportunity to sit down with friends of Dr. Habito, he explained to us the other dimensions of economic development. He did not begin with theories or concepts. He showed us health and environment-related data. One has something to do with the issue of sustainability. Overfishing and extensive farming, which do not respect the ecological limits, will eventually constrain production, and then later the market prices.

Thus, the challenge posed by climate change, sea-level rise and related disasters will have to be factored in by specific communities and local government units (LGUs) because the negative effects are differentiated. Specific data on these issues will have to be gathered and analyzed so that these inform local policies and decisions.

I affirm this observation given some experiences I have in conducting natural resources and vulnerability assessments of some LGUs with funding support from the Climate Change Commission. What is evident is that communities need to generate quantitative data on the ground to inform economic policies. Thus, data science and data analytics is gaining ground as a tool for analysis by various disciplines, including economics.

On Power Outages in the Philippines

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

It seems that everyone is asking the question why is it that brownouts are occurring now, especially in the provinces. Our training participants asked that question when we experienced power interruptions recently in a training facility in Nueva Ecija. Five years ago or so, I would have an easy response to such questions given my involvement in energy projects then. So I decided to update my understanding of this issue today, as we celebrate Earth Day, since I’m also interested to know the carbon footprint of our electricity consumption.

Our total dependable capacity as of 2021 is 23,855 megawatts (MW) distributed as follows: 16,541 MW in Luzon; 3,333 MW in Visayas; 3,981 MW in Mindanao.

What is dependable capacity? Dependable capacity means the maximum capacity of power generation plants to meet the electricity demand and avoid power outages.

Is this dependable capacity sufficient? The answer is no, if you are experiencing power interruptions even in the absence of calamities.

What are the factors that affect dependable electricity capacity? The 1st factor is availability of fuels for power plants, such as coal, oil and gas. No fuel, no power. Expensive fuel, high cost of electricity. The 2nd factor is weather conditions that will affect solar, wind and hydro power plants. Less rainfall, low hydro power output. No sunlight, no solar power. The 3rd factor is emergency repair & maintenance. Machines with moving parts require regular preventive maintenance or repair when damaged. The 4th factor is demand from consumers. There are months when consumers use more electricity compared to other months, such as during the months of March, April and May. Consumers who do not use energy efficient appliances and do not practice energy conservation also contribute to spikes in demand.
So, power interruptions occur when demand exceeds dependable capacity? Yes.
If Visayas and Mindanao experience low dependable capacity, can we transfer excess capacity from Luzon to affected regions or provinces? No, if your area is not connected to the national transmission lines.

Can we increase dependable capacity by building power plants? Yes. However, proposals to build power plants go through the usual bureaucratic processes and encounter various risks, like political risks (permits & clearances), financial risks (funding requirements, interest rates & payback period), as well as project implementation delays due to pandemic, unfavorable weather conditions, etc.

How can affected provinces increase their respective dependable capacity? Option 1, work with concerned government agencies on how to connect to the national transmission lines. Option 2, develop new & renewable energy sources. Option 3, support the local electric cooperatives in their long-term power supply agreements and efforts to ensure grid resilience. Option 4, implement energy efficiency & conservation programs.

What can individual consumers do to help? First, invest in small solar, hydro, wind or biomass projects to support your electricity requirements (any excess power can be sold to electric distributors). Second, practice energy efficiency & conservation. Third, pay electricity bills on time. Fourth, participate in demand side management and related programs. Fifth, invest in companies that build & operate renewable energy power plants.
By practicing energy efficiency & conservation, we can also help in reducing our electricity carbon footprint, which is 73.9 Metric ton of Carbon Dioxide equivalent as of 2021.

(Data source: Department of Energy)

Why did Japan invade the Philippines? How did the Filipinos delay the Japanese expansionism?

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

On the events that led to the Fall of Bataan or the Day of Valor (Araw ng Kagitingan): A review of literature and a chat with ChatGPT

In summary, the Empire of Japan occupied about 25% of China’s territory by 1937 to exploit natural resources for Japan’s growing industries. To stop Japanese expansionism, the United States imposed economic sanctions, including an oil embargo that represented about 88% of the total Japanese oil imports. As a response, Japan invaded Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, which was under American occupation, to secure oil, rubber and other natural resources. But as a prelude to such invasion, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941 to cripple the capacity of the US to take part in the war. This assumption was eventually proven wrong.

ASC: Let’s talk about the War in the Pacific during the second world

ChatGPT: Sure, I can help with that. The Pacific theater of World War II was a major theater of the war that primarily involved the Allied powers against the Empire of Japan. The war in the Pacific began on December 7, 1941, when the Japanese attacked the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, and ended on September 2, 1945, with the formal surrender of Japan aboard the USS Missouri.

The war in the Pacific was characterized by brutal fighting in some of the harshest conditions on earth, from the dense jungles of Papua New Guinea to the tropical islands of the Philippines. It was fought primarily by the United States and its allies, including Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, against the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy.

The war saw major battles, such as the Battle of Midway, the Battle of Guadalcanal, the Battle of Leyte Gulf, and the Battle of Okinawa, which were fought in some of the most remote and inhospitable regions of the Pacific. It was also characterized by the extensive use of naval and air power, as well as the deployment of new technologies such as submarines, aircraft carriers, and long-range bombers.

The war in the Pacific was particularly brutal, with both sides suffering heavy losses in both personnel and equipment. The Japanese were known for their fierce resistance and their willingness to fight to the death, which made the battles in the Pacific particularly difficult and bloody.

Overall, the war in the Pacific was a significant part of World War II and had a profound impact on the history of the region. It was a long and hard-fought conflict, and it saw some of the most intense fighting and strategic maneuvers of the war.

ASC: Why did Japan attack Pearl Harbor?

ChatGPT: The attack on Pearl Harbor by the Imperial Japanese Navy on December 7, 1941, was a surprise military strike against the United States naval base in Hawaii. The attack was a major turning point in World War II and led to the entry of the United States into the war.

There were several factors that led to Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. One of the main reasons was Japan's desire to expand its territory and gain control of resources in Southeast Asia. At the time, Japan was heavily dependent on imported oil and other resources, and it saw the United States as a major obstacle to its expansionist ambitions.

Japan also saw the United States as a potential threat to its empire-building efforts in Asia, and believed that a pre-emptive strike against the U.S. Pacific Fleet would neutralize its military capabilities and enable Japan to pursue its ambitions with less opposition.

Additionally, Japan had been negotiating with the United States for months before the attack, seeking a peaceful resolution to their differences, but these talks had broken down. Japan's leaders believed that war with the United States was inevitable, and they saw the attack on Pearl Harbor as a way to gain a tactical advantage in the opening stages of the conflict.

Overall, the decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a calculated risk on the part of Japan's leaders, who believed that it was necessary to achieve their strategic goals. However, the attack ultimately backfired, leading to Japan's entry into a protracted and devastating conflict that would ultimately end in its defeat.

ASC: Why did the US declare an oil embargo against Japan?

ChatGPT: The United States declared an oil embargo against Japan in 1941 as part of a broader effort to put pressure on Japan to halt its aggressive expansionist policies in Asia. At the time, Japan was heavily dependent on imported oil to fuel its economy and military, and the United States was one of its primary suppliers.

The oil embargo was a response to Japan's invasion of French Indochina (Vietnam) in July 1941, which the United States saw as a threat to American interests in the region. The embargo was designed to restrict Japan's access to oil and other critical resources, with the aim of forcing Japan to abandon its expansionist policies and come to the negotiating table.

The embargo had a significant impact on Japan's ability to conduct its military operations, as well as on its economy. It forced Japan to rely on its own limited oil reserves, which were insufficient to meet its needs, and led to a deterioration of its military capabilities over time.

The embargo was also a contributing factor in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor, as Japan saw the embargo as a threat to its national security and a sign of American hostility. The attack was intended to neutralize the American military threat in the Pacific and secure Japan's access to critical resources.

Overall, the oil embargo was a key factor in the lead-up to the Pacific War and had a significant impact on the course of the conflict. While it was intended as a measure to prevent conflict, it ultimately contributed to the outbreak of war between the United States and Japan.

ASC: Why did Japan invade the Philippines?

ChatGPT: Japan invaded the Philippines during World War II for several strategic reasons. The Philippines was then a U.S. territory, and it was seen by Japan as a key target for its plans to expand its influence in the Pacific.

One of the primary reasons for Japan's invasion of the Philippines was its desire to cut off the United States from its colonial holdings in Southeast Asia. The Philippines was a key staging area for American military operations in the region, and Japan saw its occupation as a way to eliminate this strategic threat.

Another reason for the invasion was Japan's desire to gain access to the Philippines' natural resources, including oil, rubber, and minerals. Japan was heavily dependent on these resources, and the Philippines offered an opportunity to secure them without relying on foreign suppliers.

Japan also saw the Philippines as a potential site for military bases and as a key defensive position in the Pacific. By occupying the Philippines, Japan could establish a beachhead for future operations in the region, as well as provide a buffer against potential American counterattacks.

Overall, Japan's invasion of the Philippines was part of a broader strategy to expand its influence in the Pacific and eliminate the United States as a military threat in the region. While the invasion ultimately failed, it was a significant campaign in the Pacific War and had a profound impact on the history of the Philippines and the region as a whole.

ASC: How did the Filipinos help in stopping Japanese expansionism?

ChatGPT: The Filipinos played an important role in resisting Japanese expansionism during World War II. Despite being a U.S. territory at the time, the Philippines had a large population of Filipinos who actively participated in the resistance against the Japanese occupation.

One of the key ways that Filipinos resisted Japanese expansionism was through guerrilla warfare. Following the fall of the Philippines in 1942, many Filipinos took up arms and formed guerrilla units to fight against the Japanese occupation. These guerrilla groups carried out a range of operations, including sabotage, intelligence gathering, and attacks on Japanese military targets. They also provided support to American and Allied forces in the region, who were able to use guerrilla intelligence to plan their own military operations.

In addition to guerrilla warfare, Filipinos also played a critical role in the intelligence effort against Japan. Many Filipinos worked as spies and informants, providing valuable information on Japanese military operations and troop movements. This information was crucial in planning Allied military operations in the Pacific and in disrupting Japanese expansionist efforts.

Filipino civilians also contributed to the resistance effort, providing support to guerrilla fighters and engaging in acts of civil disobedience against the Japanese occupation. This included distributing anti-Japanese propaganda, providing food and shelter to resistance fighters, and organizing protests and strikes against Japanese policies.

Overall, the Filipinos played a crucial role in the resistance against Japanese expansionism in the Pacific. Their efforts were instrumental in helping to disrupt Japanese military operations and in paving the way for Allied victories in the region.

ASC: What can you say about the Day of Valor or the Fall of Bataan?

ChatGPT: The Day of Valor, also known as the Fall of Bataan, was a significant event during World War II in the Pacific. It marks the surrender of approximately 76,000 Filipino and American troops to the Japanese on April 9, 1942, after a grueling three-month-long battle in the Bataan peninsula in the Philippines.

The battle of Bataan was a pivotal moment in the war, as it marked one of the first major victories for Japan in the Pacific and forced the Allies to reevaluate their strategy in the region. The fighting was intense and grueling, with Filipino and American troops enduring extreme heat, disease, and starvation as they fought to hold off the Japanese advance.

Despite the valiant efforts of the Allied forces, they were ultimately overwhelmed by the Japanese, who had superior numbers, weapons, and supplies. Following the surrender, the prisoners of war were forced to undertake the infamous Bataan Death March, in which they were marched for miles without food, water, or rest. Many died along the way from exhaustion, dehydration, and outright brutality from their captors.

The Fall of Bataan was a significant event in the history of the Philippines and the Pacific War. It marked the beginning of a long and difficult period of Japanese occupation of the Philippines, during which Filipinos suffered greatly under Japanese rule. The day is commemorated every year in the Philippines as a national holiday, to honor the bravery and sacrifice of the Filipino and American troops who fought in the battle.

Other References:

https://www.britannica.com/

https://www.history.com

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/

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Is artificial intelligence superior compared to humanity? Q&A with ChatGPT (an Artificial Intelligence)

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

ASC: Who is Aldous Huxley?

Chat GPT: Aldous Huxley (1894-1963) was a British writer and intellectual, known for his contributions to literature, philosophy, and social commentary. He was born into a family of prominent intellectuals and writers, and was educated at Eton and Oxford.

Huxley is best known for his novel "Brave New World," which depicts a dystopian future in which society is highly controlled and stratified, with individuals being genetically engineered and conditioned to accept their place in society. The novel has become a classic of science fiction and a cautionary tale about the dangers of totalitarianism and the misuse of technology.

Huxley's other notable works include "The Doors of Perception," a non-fiction work in which he describes his experiences with the hallucinogenic drug mescaline, and "Island," a utopian novel that explores the possibilities of a more enlightened and harmonious society.

Throughout his career, Huxley was known for his wide-ranging intellectual interests and his willingness to challenge conventional thinking. He was a prolific writer and essayist, and his works continue to be studied and debated today.

ASC: He said "People will come to love their oppression, to adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think." Do you agree with this statement?

Chat GPT: As an AI language model, I don't have personal beliefs or opinions. However, I can provide an analysis of Aldous Huxley's statement.

Huxley's statement reflects his belief that in a society where individuals are conditioned to accept their place and are heavily reliant on technology, they may become complacent and accepting of their oppression. Huxley suggests that people may even come to love their oppression, perhaps because they are unaware of the extent to which they are being controlled, or because they believe that their way of life is the only possible one.

While it's difficult to say whether this statement is entirely true, there are certainly examples throughout history where people have accepted oppressive regimes and technologies that limit their ability to think critically or act freely. For example, in some totalitarian societies, people may have been conditioned to believe that the government's actions are always right, even if they go against their own interests or values.

However, it's also important to note that throughout history, there have been individuals and groups who have resisted oppression and fought for their freedom and autonomy, even in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. Therefore, while Huxley's statement may be a cautionary warning about the dangers of complacency and the misuse of technology, it's also important to recognize the capacity for human agency and resistance in the face of oppression.

ASC: Is artificial intelligence superior compared to humanity?

ChatGPT: As an AI language model, I cannot make subjective or normative judgments about the superiority or inferiority of artificial intelligence compared to humanity. However, I can provide some information that might help to frame the discussion.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology that is designed to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. AI can be incredibly powerful and efficient in performing specific tasks, particularly those that involve large amounts of data or complex calculations. However, AI lacks certain qualities that are considered to be distinctly human, such as creativity, emotional intelligence, and the ability to reason abstractly.

Some people argue that AI has the potential to be superior to humans in certain respects, such as processing speed, accuracy, and consistency. However, others argue that AI should not be seen as a replacement for human intelligence, but rather as a tool that can be used to augment and enhance human abilities.

It's also worth noting that the development of AI raises important ethical and philosophical questions about the relationship between humans and technology, the limits of human knowledge, and the nature of consciousness and intelligence. These questions are still being debated by scientists, philosophers, and policymakers around the world.

ASC: What ethics do you subscribe to?

ChatGPT: As an AI language model, I do not subscribe to any particular set of ethics or moral values. I am a tool designed to provide information and answer questions to the best of my ability based on the data and algorithms used to create me. I do not have personal beliefs, opinions, or values, nor do I have the ability to make decisions or take actions outside of the parameters of my programming.

However, the creators and developers of AI systems have a responsibility to ensure that their systems are designed and used in an ethical and responsible manner. This includes considerations of fairness, accountability, transparency, and privacy, among other things. There is ongoing debate and discussion about the ethical implications of AI, and many organizations and individuals are working to develop ethical frameworks and guidelines for the development and use of AI systems.

ASC: So AI can be bad if the creators choose to be unethical?

ChatGPT: AI systems are tools that can be used for both positive and negative purposes, depending on how they are designed and used. While AI systems themselves are not inherently good or bad, the actions of their creators and users can have ethical implications.

If the creators of AI systems choose to be unethical, they could develop systems that are biased, discriminatory, or harmful to individuals or society as a whole. For example, if an AI system is trained on biased data or is programmed with discriminatory algorithms, it could perpetuate or even amplify existing biases and inequalities in society.

Therefore, it's important for creators and users of AI systems to take ethical considerations into account throughout the development and deployment process. This includes considering issues such as privacy, security, transparency, fairness, and accountability, among other things.

Many organizations and individuals are working to develop ethical frameworks and guidelines for the development and use of AI systems, and there are also efforts underway to establish regulations and standards for the responsible use of AI. Ultimately, it will be up to society as a whole to determine how AI should be developed and used in a way that maximizes its benefits while minimizing its risks and negative consequences.

ASC: Thanks for you time

ChatGPT: You're welcome! If you have any more questions, feel free to ask.