Learning from the Past and the Future

by Alan S. Cajes 

During a special forum with C. Otto Scharmer on May 24, 2019 in Manila, I took part in an intimate sharing session on the topic "Thriving in the Age of Disruption: The Emergence of the Eco-System Leader." It also served as an opportunity to discuss some ideas with Scharmer related to his Theory U. In his book entitled "The Essentials of Theory U," Scharmer shares some insights on learning. He said: "There are two different sources of learning: (1) learning by reflecting on the past and (2) learning by sensing and actualizing emerging future possibilities." These distinct sources of learning are crucial for personal and organizational development. 

In an era of accelerating VUCA change, leaders and organizations face a fundamental challenge: how do we learn effectively when both the pace of change and the volume of information exceed our traditional processing capabilities? The answer may lie in recognizing that human learning operates through two complementary yet distinct modalities that have been understood for millennia, but are only now being validated by contemporary neuroscience. 

Two Sources of Learning 

Effective learning draws from two primary sources that together create a complete epistemological framework: 

• Learning from Yesterday: Retrospective Analysis - This involves the systematic examination of past experiences and outcomes to extract patterns, principles, and insights. Through careful analysis of both successes and failures, individuals and organizations build a repository of practical wisdom that informs future decision-making. 

This mode of learning emphasizes empirical observation, pattern recognition, and the gradual accumulation of knowledge through experience. 

• Learning from Tomorrow: Prospective Sensing - This forward-looking approach involves developing sensitivity to emerging trends, nascent possibilities, and future potentials that have not yet fully materialized. Rather than extrapolating from past data, this mode requires cultivating the capacity to perceive weak signals, recognize emerging patterns, and engage with possibilities that exist at the edge of current reality. 

The integration of these two approaches creates a dynamic learning system that honors accumulated wisdom while remaining open to transformative possibilities. 

Classical Philosophical Foundations 

This dual epistemological framework finds profound resonance in the foundational works of Western philosophy, suggesting that the recognition of multiple learning modalities has ancient roots. 

• Platonic Epistemology: The Divided Line of Knowledge - Plato's epistemology, most fully developed in the Republic and Meno, distinguished between knowledge acquired through sensory experience (doxa) and the deeper understanding that emerges through recollection (anamnesis). In the famous dialogue with the slave boy, 

Plato demonstrates how genuine mathematical insight arises not from external instruction but from the soul's recognition of eternal truths it encountered before birth. This Platonic insight parallels our contemporary understanding of prospective sensing: sometimes we recognize emerging truths not through analytical deduction but through a deeper form of recognition that transcends ordinary reasoning. The capacity to sense future possibilities may operate through similar mechanisms of recognition rather than calculation. 

• Aristotelian Empiricism: From Sensation to Wisdom - Aristotle's Posterior Analytics and Nicomachean Ethics established the empirical foundation that would later influence Aquinas and shape Western scientific methodology. His epistemological hierarchy—from sensation (aisthesis) through experience (empeiria) to scientific knowledge (episteme) and wisdom (sophia)—provides a systematic framework for learning from accumulated experience. However, 

Aristotle also recognized nous (intuitive intellect) as the faculty that grasps first principles directly, without demonstration. This suggests that even within his empirical framework, Aristotle acknowledged forms of immediate insight that complement gradual learning from experience. 

• Thomistic Synthesis: Natural and Supernatural Knowledge Thomas Aquinas, in the Summa Theologica and De Veritate, achieved a remarkable synthesis of Aristotelian empiricism with Christian theological insights. His distinction between natural knowledge (acquired through sensory experience and rational analysis) and supernatural knowledge (received through divine infusion) provides a framework for understanding both methodical learning from experience and the more mysterious process of breakthrough insight. 

Aquinas's concept of infused knowledge—understanding that arrives complete and transformative rather than through gradual accumulation—offers a medieval parallel to contemporary research on insight and intuitive cognition. 

Contemporary Neuroscientific Validation 

Modern neuroscience provides compelling empirical support for these philosophical distinctions, revealing the specific brain mechanisms that underlie both retrospective analysis and prospective sensing. 

Memory Consolidation and Retrospective Learning. - Research in cognitive neuroscience has illuminated the biological basis of learning from experience. The hippocampus plays a crucial role in consolidating memories during sleep, strengthening synaptic connections and integrating new information with existing knowledge structures (Squire & Kandel, 2009). This process of memory consolidation literally rewrites our neural architecture, allowing us to extract increasingly sophisticated patterns from accumulated experience. 

Studies of expertise development show how deliberate practice creates domain-specific neural networks that enable rapid pattern recognition and skilled performance (Ericsson & Pool, 2016). This research validates the importance of systematic reflection on past experience as a foundation for developing practical wisdom. 

Predictive Processing and Future Sensing. - Emerging research on predictive processing reveals that the brain is fundamentally a prediction machine, constantly generating models of future possibilities (Clark, 2016). The default mode network—a collection of brain regions active during rest—engages in extensive mental time travel, simulating potential scenarios and preparing responses to anticipated events (Buckner & Carroll, 2007). 

This neurological capacity for "learning from tomorrow" involves the prefrontal cortex's ability to integrate weak signals into coherent anticipatory frameworks. Recent studies suggest that individuals with stronger default mode network connectivity show enhanced capacity for creative insight and future-oriented thinking. 

Intuitive Cognition and Rapid Pattern Recognition.- Research on intuitive decision-making has revealed how the brain processes complex information below conscious awareness. Antoine Bechara's landmark studies using the Iowa Gambling Task demonstrated that participants develop physiological responses to advantageous choices before they can consciously articulate the underlying patterns (Bechara et al., 1997). 

This research on "somatic markers" suggests that our capacity to sense emerging possibilities operates through rapid, unconscious pattern matching that precedes analytical reasoning. The brain's ability to detect subtle patterns and generate intuitive responses provides a neurological foundation for prospective sensing. 

Insight and Neural Reorganization. - Neuroimaging studies of insight experiences reveal that breakthrough moments involve the sudden reorganization of neural networks. The "Aha!" experience appears in EEG recordings as distinctive gamma wave bursts, suggesting that transformative learning occurs when the brain rapidly reconfigures existing knowledge into novel patterns (Jung-Beeman et al., 2004). 

These findings indicate that both retrospective reflection and prospective sensing can trigger insight experiences, validating the integration of both learning modalities as neurologically grounded approaches to understanding. 

Implications for Leadership and Organizational Learning 

This convergence of ancient wisdom and contemporary science suggests several important implications for how we approach learning in complex, rapidly changing environments: Balanced Learning Portfolios: Effective leaders and organizations need to cultivate both retrospective analytical capabilities and prospective sensing abilities. This requires creating structures and practices that support both systematic reflection on experience and openness to emerging possibilities. 

• Multiple Ways of Knowing: Recognizing the validity of both analytical and intuitive forms of cognition can help leaders make better decisions in uncertain environments. The integration of data-driven analysis with pattern sensing and intuitive insight creates a more robust decision-making framework. 

• Contemplative Leadership: The cultivation of prospective sensing may require practices that quiet the analytical mind and create space for subtle pattern recognition. This suggests the importance of contemplative practices in leadership development. 

Toward an Integrated Epistemology 

The recognition that learning operates through dual modalities—retrospective analysis and prospective sensing—represents more than an interesting theoretical insight. It points toward a more complete understanding of human cognition that honors both the accumulated wisdom of experience and the creative capacity to sense emerging possibilities. 

This integrated approach to learning, supported by both ancient philosophical wisdom and contemporary neuroscientific research, offers a foundation for navigating complexity and uncertainty with both practical grounding and creative responsiveness. In a world where the future increasingly differs from the past, our capacity to learn from both yesterday and tomorrow becomes not just advantageous but essential. 

References

Bechara, A., Damasio, H., Tranel, D., & Damasio, A. R. (1997). Deciding advantageously before knowing the advantageous strategy. Science, 275(5304), 1293-1295.

Buckner, R. L., & Carroll, D. C. (2007). Self-projection and the brain. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 11(2), 49-57.

Clark, A. (2016). Surfing uncertainty: Prediction, action, and the embodied mind. Oxford University Press.

Ericsson, A., & Pool, R. (2016). Peak: Secrets from the new science of expertise. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Jung-Beeman, M., Bowden, E. M., Haberman, J., Frymiare, J. L., Arambel-Liu, S., Greenblatt, R., ... & Kounios, J. (2004). Neural activity when people solve verbal problems with insight. PLoS Biology, 2(4), e97.

Squire, L. R., & Kandel, E. R. (2009). Memory: From mind to molecules. Scientific American Library.