Some Takeaways from "Frontiers of Development Economics: The Future in Perspective"

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

This publication by the World Bank  provides a useful reference in understanding economic development. Some of the key takeaways include the following: there is no single formula for development; economic development is not just about infrastructure and economic activities, but also covers knowledge, institutions, and culture; the new growth theory underscores the role of ideas in promoting economic growth; the proper implementation of good ideas can increase the country’s total productivity; innovation serves as a catalyst to hasten the occurrence of development, and  innovation can be used to offset diminishing returns.  Indeed, sound ideas are part of human capital. Thus entrepreneurial ability, as a form of human capital, can help accelerate the process of economic development.

Structural changes and better economic outcomes can also be fostered by scientific ideas and rationality.  That is why the importation of ideas is generally accepted as a strategy to stimulate economic development. However, ideas are an insufficient, although a necessary, condition for development. Bad ideas have wreaked havoc on the economies of many nations. Hence, the rejection of bad ideas is as important as the adoption of good ideas. 

The story of economic development is paved with good and bad ideas. This is clearly demonstrated by the experiences of several socialist countries. In the case of the Philippines, the infusion of liberal ideas eventually awakened the consciousness of the natives about the bad economic situation they had after more than three centuries of Spanish domination. The lessons that the Ilustrados gained, by visiting and studying in other countries, enabled them to distinguish between right and wrong political and economic ideas.

The post-World War II Philippines was generally a poignant reminder of the failures of the import-substitution industrialization. This idea was adopted despite the fact that it was meant for industrial countries. To some extent, import-substitution industrialization produced some benefits, such as the development of local industries. However, in the long run, it became outdated and obsolete compared to what our Asian neighbors have adopted. Thus, the abandonment of unsound ideas is as good as the reception of rational ideas.

In the end, good ideas are like appropriate technologies. They have to be tested and analyzed to ensure that they fit the context of the place where they are to be planted. During my humble experiences in cooperative development, I have first-hand knowledge of the fact that a model that works in one cooperative won’t work when transplanted to another cooperative. There are several factors to be considered, such as the culture of the cooperative members and officers, their risk appetite, the type of business they are into, the supplies of raw materials, infrastructure support, access to funding and coaches, etc. 

Reference

Meier, Gerald M.; Stiglitz, Joseph E. [editors]. Frontiers of development economics : the future in perspective (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/586861468762924370/Frontiers-of-development-economics-the-future-in-perspective

Geotourism and the Bohol Island Geopark

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Photo taken from https://geopark.bohol.gov.ph/en/geosites/

This article basically attempts to answer the question: what form of tourism is appropriate for the Bohol Island UNESCO Global Geopark?

On 24 May 2023, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Executive Board designated Bohol Island as the first UNESCO Global Geopark of the Philippines, thanks to the efforts of the various proponents and stakeholders. A UNESCO Global Geopark is a single, unified geographical area “where sites and landscapes of international geological significance are managed with a holistic concept of protection, education and sustainable development (UNESCO)”. 

In the case of the Bohol Island UNESCO Global Geopark, it covers “8808 square kilometers of land and surrounding lush marine protected areas (UNESCO)”. The covered geosites include the following: caves, sinkholes and cone karst, including the Chocolate Hills; Danajon Double Barrier Reef; uplifted marine terrace in Maribojoc and Loon; rupture site in Inabanga; Alicia Schist; springs; waterfalls, etc.

For the geosites, the appropriate form of tourism is geotourism, a form of tourism “that sustains or enhances the distinctive geographical character of a place—its environment, heritage, aesthetics, culture, and the well-being of its residents (National Geographic). Geotourism adheres to 13 principles (see below), including the following: adherence to the principles of the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics for Tourism and the principles of the Cultural Tourism Charter established by the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS). 

Article 2.4-2.5 of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism are particularly instructive:

• Article 2.4. Tourism infrastructure should be designed and tourism activities programmed in such a way as to protect the natural heritage composed of ecosystems and biodiversity and to preserve endangered species of wildlife; the stakeholders in tourism development, and especially professionals, should agree to the imposition of limitations or constraints on their activities when these are exercised in particularly sensitive areas: desert, polar or high mountain regions, coastal areas, tropical forests or wetlands, propitious to the creation of nature reserves or protected areas;
• Article 2.5. Nature tourism and ecotourism are recognized as being particularly conducive to enriching and enhancing the standing of tourism, provided they respect the natural heritage and local populations and are in keeping with the carrying capacity of the sites

A relevant ICOMOS principle states: “In any case, with the future in mind, it is the respect of the world, cultural and natural heritage which must take precedence over any other considerations however justified these may be from a social, political or economic point of view.”

Given the above principles, it is imperative that a third party evaluation study be done (Principle 13) to determine the state of the geotourism areas and destinations, as well as propose the strategies or ways forward. Lest we forget, the UNESCO Global Geoparks have four years before a thorough re-examination will be done. The review will determine if the UNESCO Global Geopark:

• Still fulfills the criteria and its status will be extended to another 4 years (green card);
• No longer fulfills the criteria and appropriate steps must be undertaken in a period of 2 years (yellow card);
• Will lose its status as a UNESCO Global Geopark should it fails to fulfill the criteria within 2 years after getting a yellow card (red card).

 Other possible immediate actions:

1. Ensure that the Protected Area Management Board is functional and meets regularly;
2. Establish some kind of multisectoral Geotourism Council to include the concerned residents, tourist associations, tour operators, tourism industry representatives, etc. to forge consensus on allowable, prohibited or restorative acts in the covered areas;
3. Tourism industry to pursue industry self-regulation to prevent violations from its industry players;
4. LGUs and concerned agencies to inform, educate and communicate to the stakeholders the honors, benefits and accountabilities of being a UNESCO Global Geopark, as well as properly enforce their respective mandates;
5. Identify the geosites (e.g., which hills are part of the Chocolate Hills), put up easy to spot and read billboards or markings, and engage the affected stakeholders in a “Binol-anon” way of conversation;
6. For the Provincial Government of Bohol, consider re-certification under the ISO 14000 (Environmental Management System) to encourage tourist establishments to conform or get certified under relevant ISO standards, such as ISO 18065:2015 for tourism and related services.

 The Geotourism Principles

1. Integrity of a Place - Enhance the geographical character of the destination by developing and improving it in ways distinctive to the locale. Encourage market differentiation and cultural pride in ways that are reflective of natural and cultural heritage.

2. International Codes - Adhere to the principles embodied in the World Tourism Organization’s Global Code of Ethics for Tourism and the principles of the Cultural Tourism Charter established by the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS).

3. Community Involvement - Base tourism on community resources to the extent possible, encouraging local small businesses and civic groups to build partnerships to promote and provide a distinctive, honest visitor experience and market their locales effectively. Help businesses develop approaches to tourism that build on the area’s nature, history, and culture, including food and drink, artisanship, performance arts, and the like.

4. Community Benefit - Encourage micro- to medium-size enterprises and tourism business strategies that emphasize economic and social benefits to involved communities, especially poverty alleviation, with clear communication of the destination stewardship policies required to maintain those benefits.

5. Tourist Satisfaction - Ensure that satisfied, excited geotravelers bring new vacation stories home and send friends off to experience the same thing, thus providing continuing demand for the destination.

6. Conservation of Resources - Encourage businesses to minimize water pollution, solid waste, energy consumption, water usage, landscaping chemicals, and overly bright nighttime lighting. Advertise these measures in a way that attracts the large, environmentally sympathetic tourist market.

7. Protection and Enhancement of Destination Appeal - Encourage the destination to sustain natural habitats, heritage sites, aesthetic appeal, and local culture. Prevent degradation by keeping the volume of tourists within maximum acceptable limits. Seek business models that can operate profitably within those limits. Use persuasion, incentives, and legal enforcement as needed.

8. Planning - Recognize and respect immediate economic need without sacrificing long-term character and the geotourism potential of the destination. Where tourism attracts in-migration of workers, develop new communities that themselves constitute a destination enhancement. Strive to diversify the economy and limit population influx to sustainable levels. Adopt public strategies for mitigating practices that are incompatible with geotourism and damaging to the image of the destination.

9. Land Use - Anticipate development pressures and apply techniques to prevent undesired overdevelopment and degradation. Contain resort and vacation-home sprawl, especially on coasts and islands, so as to retain a diversity of natural and scenic environments and ensure continued resident access to waterfronts. Encourage major self-contained tourism attractions, such as large-scale theme parks and convention centers unrelated to character of place, to be sited in needier locations with no significant ecological, scenic, or cultural assets.

10. Market Diversity - Encourage a full range of appropriate food and lodging facilities, so as to appeal to the entire demographic spectrum of the geotourism market and so maximize economic resiliency over both the short and long term.

11. Interactive Interpretation - Engage both visitors and hosts in learning about the place. Encourage residents to show off the natural and cultural heritage of their communities, so that tourists gain a richer experience and residents develop pride in their locales.

12. Market Selectivity - Encourage growth in tourism market segments most likely to appreciate, respect, and disseminate information about the distinctive assets of the locale.

13. Evaluation - Establish an evaluation process to be conducted on a regular basis by an independent panel representing all stakeholders' interests, and publicize evaluation results.

Disclosure: the author is a Bol-anon by consanguinity, a long time resident of Batuan in Bohol, an associate member of the National Geographic and the International Ecotourism Society, and not a recipient of any funding or support in writing this article.

On Data and Development Economics

 by Alan A. Cajes, PhD

In an article entitled Development Economics, Debraj Ray discusses and explains some concepts that are central to the study of development economics, which studies the economies of the developing countries. The concepts include the conventional growth theory (movement to a steady state), the notion of convergence (getting some parameters right), nonconvergence viewpoint (movement along different paths due to differences in histories, institutions, etc.), and the issues related to the microeconomics of development (credit market, collective action for public goods, conflicts, institutional effects).

Although the author describes the concepts and how such concepts affect our understanding of development path of nations, Ray does not take any side. What can be inferred from the discussion is the non-empirical approach in discussing the concepts. The concepts, for instance, could not be used to assess the predicament of the Philippines as a national economy. Some of the concepts are explained via the experiences of different economies that have varied historical and related experiences. The author, however, points to the direction of empirical research in development economics. As researchers use information and communication technology (ICT)-aided empirical studies, there is a direction towards induction based on observations and hard knowledge.

I learned a lot while trying to grasp the various concepts presented in the article. This reminds me of a Facebook post by an economist from another university claiming that economics is moving away from theoretical analysis (theory explains the data) to data-based analysis (facts first, theory later). This also reminds me of Dr. Cielito Habito’s “PiTik” test or the use of key economic indicators like “presyo, trabahao and kita” (prices, jobs and incomes). 

In one session where I had the opportunity to sit down with friends of Dr. Habito, he explained to us the other dimensions of economic development. He did not begin with theories or concepts. He showed us health and environment-related data. One has something to do with the issue of sustainability. Overfishing and extensive farming, which do not respect the ecological limits, will eventually constrain production, and then later the market prices.

Thus, the challenge posed by climate change, sea-level rise and related disasters will have to be factored in by specific communities and local government units (LGUs) because the negative effects are differentiated. Specific data on these issues will have to be gathered and analyzed so that these inform local policies and decisions.

I affirm this observation given some experiences I have in conducting natural resources and vulnerability assessments of some LGUs with funding support from the Climate Change Commission. What is evident is that communities need to generate quantitative data on the ground to inform economic policies. Thus, data science and data analytics is gaining ground as a tool for analysis by various disciplines, including economics.

On Power Outages in the Philippines

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

It seems that everyone is asking the question why is it that brownouts are occurring now, especially in the provinces. Our training participants asked that question when we experienced power interruptions recently in a training facility in Nueva Ecija. Five years ago or so, I would have an easy response to such questions given my involvement in energy projects then. So I decided to update my understanding of this issue today, as we celebrate Earth Day, since I’m also interested to know the carbon footprint of our electricity consumption.

Our total dependable capacity as of 2021 is 23,855 megawatts (MW) distributed as follows: 16,541 MW in Luzon; 3,333 MW in Visayas; 3,981 MW in Mindanao.

What is dependable capacity? Dependable capacity means the maximum capacity of power generation plants to meet the electricity demand and avoid power outages.

Is this dependable capacity sufficient? The answer is no, if you are experiencing power interruptions even in the absence of calamities.

What are the factors that affect dependable electricity capacity? The 1st factor is availability of fuels for power plants, such as coal, oil and gas. No fuel, no power. Expensive fuel, high cost of electricity. The 2nd factor is weather conditions that will affect solar, wind and hydro power plants. Less rainfall, low hydro power output. No sunlight, no solar power. The 3rd factor is emergency repair & maintenance. Machines with moving parts require regular preventive maintenance or repair when damaged. The 4th factor is demand from consumers. There are months when consumers use more electricity compared to other months, such as during the months of March, April and May. Consumers who do not use energy efficient appliances and do not practice energy conservation also contribute to spikes in demand.
So, power interruptions occur when demand exceeds dependable capacity? Yes.
If Visayas and Mindanao experience low dependable capacity, can we transfer excess capacity from Luzon to affected regions or provinces? No, if your area is not connected to the national transmission lines.

Can we increase dependable capacity by building power plants? Yes. However, proposals to build power plants go through the usual bureaucratic processes and encounter various risks, like political risks (permits & clearances), financial risks (funding requirements, interest rates & payback period), as well as project implementation delays due to pandemic, unfavorable weather conditions, etc.

How can affected provinces increase their respective dependable capacity? Option 1, work with concerned government agencies on how to connect to the national transmission lines. Option 2, develop new & renewable energy sources. Option 3, support the local electric cooperatives in their long-term power supply agreements and efforts to ensure grid resilience. Option 4, implement energy efficiency & conservation programs.

What can individual consumers do to help? First, invest in small solar, hydro, wind or biomass projects to support your electricity requirements (any excess power can be sold to electric distributors). Second, practice energy efficiency & conservation. Third, pay electricity bills on time. Fourth, participate in demand side management and related programs. Fifth, invest in companies that build & operate renewable energy power plants.
By practicing energy efficiency & conservation, we can also help in reducing our electricity carbon footprint, which is 73.9 Metric ton of Carbon Dioxide equivalent as of 2021.

(Data source: Department of Energy)

Why did Japan invade the Philippines? How did the Filipinos delay the Japanese expansionism?

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

On the events that led to the Fall of Bataan or the Day of Valor (Araw ng Kagitingan): A review of literature and a chat with ChatGPT

In summary, the Empire of Japan occupied about 25% of China’s territory by 1937 to exploit natural resources for Japan’s growing industries. To stop Japanese expansionism, the United States imposed economic sanctions, including an oil embargo that represented about 88% of the total Japanese oil imports. As a response, Japan invaded Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, which was under American occupation, to secure oil, rubber and other natural resources. But as a prelude to such invasion, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941 to cripple the capacity of the US to take part in the war. This assumption was eventually proven wrong.

ASC: Let’s talk about the War in the Pacific during the second world

ChatGPT: Sure, I can help with that. The Pacific theater of World War II was a major theater of the war that primarily involved the Allied powers against the Empire of Japan. The war in the Pacific began on December 7, 1941, when the Japanese attacked the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii, and ended on September 2, 1945, with the formal surrender of Japan aboard the USS Missouri.

The war in the Pacific was characterized by brutal fighting in some of the harshest conditions on earth, from the dense jungles of Papua New Guinea to the tropical islands of the Philippines. It was fought primarily by the United States and its allies, including Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, against the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy.

The war saw major battles, such as the Battle of Midway, the Battle of Guadalcanal, the Battle of Leyte Gulf, and the Battle of Okinawa, which were fought in some of the most remote and inhospitable regions of the Pacific. It was also characterized by the extensive use of naval and air power, as well as the deployment of new technologies such as submarines, aircraft carriers, and long-range bombers.

The war in the Pacific was particularly brutal, with both sides suffering heavy losses in both personnel and equipment. The Japanese were known for their fierce resistance and their willingness to fight to the death, which made the battles in the Pacific particularly difficult and bloody.

Overall, the war in the Pacific was a significant part of World War II and had a profound impact on the history of the region. It was a long and hard-fought conflict, and it saw some of the most intense fighting and strategic maneuvers of the war.

ASC: Why did Japan attack Pearl Harbor?

ChatGPT: The attack on Pearl Harbor by the Imperial Japanese Navy on December 7, 1941, was a surprise military strike against the United States naval base in Hawaii. The attack was a major turning point in World War II and led to the entry of the United States into the war.

There were several factors that led to Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. One of the main reasons was Japan's desire to expand its territory and gain control of resources in Southeast Asia. At the time, Japan was heavily dependent on imported oil and other resources, and it saw the United States as a major obstacle to its expansionist ambitions.

Japan also saw the United States as a potential threat to its empire-building efforts in Asia, and believed that a pre-emptive strike against the U.S. Pacific Fleet would neutralize its military capabilities and enable Japan to pursue its ambitions with less opposition.

Additionally, Japan had been negotiating with the United States for months before the attack, seeking a peaceful resolution to their differences, but these talks had broken down. Japan's leaders believed that war with the United States was inevitable, and they saw the attack on Pearl Harbor as a way to gain a tactical advantage in the opening stages of the conflict.

Overall, the decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a calculated risk on the part of Japan's leaders, who believed that it was necessary to achieve their strategic goals. However, the attack ultimately backfired, leading to Japan's entry into a protracted and devastating conflict that would ultimately end in its defeat.

ASC: Why did the US declare an oil embargo against Japan?

ChatGPT: The United States declared an oil embargo against Japan in 1941 as part of a broader effort to put pressure on Japan to halt its aggressive expansionist policies in Asia. At the time, Japan was heavily dependent on imported oil to fuel its economy and military, and the United States was one of its primary suppliers.

The oil embargo was a response to Japan's invasion of French Indochina (Vietnam) in July 1941, which the United States saw as a threat to American interests in the region. The embargo was designed to restrict Japan's access to oil and other critical resources, with the aim of forcing Japan to abandon its expansionist policies and come to the negotiating table.

The embargo had a significant impact on Japan's ability to conduct its military operations, as well as on its economy. It forced Japan to rely on its own limited oil reserves, which were insufficient to meet its needs, and led to a deterioration of its military capabilities over time.

The embargo was also a contributing factor in Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor, as Japan saw the embargo as a threat to its national security and a sign of American hostility. The attack was intended to neutralize the American military threat in the Pacific and secure Japan's access to critical resources.

Overall, the oil embargo was a key factor in the lead-up to the Pacific War and had a significant impact on the course of the conflict. While it was intended as a measure to prevent conflict, it ultimately contributed to the outbreak of war between the United States and Japan.

ASC: Why did Japan invade the Philippines?

ChatGPT: Japan invaded the Philippines during World War II for several strategic reasons. The Philippines was then a U.S. territory, and it was seen by Japan as a key target for its plans to expand its influence in the Pacific.

One of the primary reasons for Japan's invasion of the Philippines was its desire to cut off the United States from its colonial holdings in Southeast Asia. The Philippines was a key staging area for American military operations in the region, and Japan saw its occupation as a way to eliminate this strategic threat.

Another reason for the invasion was Japan's desire to gain access to the Philippines' natural resources, including oil, rubber, and minerals. Japan was heavily dependent on these resources, and the Philippines offered an opportunity to secure them without relying on foreign suppliers.

Japan also saw the Philippines as a potential site for military bases and as a key defensive position in the Pacific. By occupying the Philippines, Japan could establish a beachhead for future operations in the region, as well as provide a buffer against potential American counterattacks.

Overall, Japan's invasion of the Philippines was part of a broader strategy to expand its influence in the Pacific and eliminate the United States as a military threat in the region. While the invasion ultimately failed, it was a significant campaign in the Pacific War and had a profound impact on the history of the Philippines and the region as a whole.

ASC: How did the Filipinos help in stopping Japanese expansionism?

ChatGPT: The Filipinos played an important role in resisting Japanese expansionism during World War II. Despite being a U.S. territory at the time, the Philippines had a large population of Filipinos who actively participated in the resistance against the Japanese occupation.

One of the key ways that Filipinos resisted Japanese expansionism was through guerrilla warfare. Following the fall of the Philippines in 1942, many Filipinos took up arms and formed guerrilla units to fight against the Japanese occupation. These guerrilla groups carried out a range of operations, including sabotage, intelligence gathering, and attacks on Japanese military targets. They also provided support to American and Allied forces in the region, who were able to use guerrilla intelligence to plan their own military operations.

In addition to guerrilla warfare, Filipinos also played a critical role in the intelligence effort against Japan. Many Filipinos worked as spies and informants, providing valuable information on Japanese military operations and troop movements. This information was crucial in planning Allied military operations in the Pacific and in disrupting Japanese expansionist efforts.

Filipino civilians also contributed to the resistance effort, providing support to guerrilla fighters and engaging in acts of civil disobedience against the Japanese occupation. This included distributing anti-Japanese propaganda, providing food and shelter to resistance fighters, and organizing protests and strikes against Japanese policies.

Overall, the Filipinos played a crucial role in the resistance against Japanese expansionism in the Pacific. Their efforts were instrumental in helping to disrupt Japanese military operations and in paving the way for Allied victories in the region.

ASC: What can you say about the Day of Valor or the Fall of Bataan?

ChatGPT: The Day of Valor, also known as the Fall of Bataan, was a significant event during World War II in the Pacific. It marks the surrender of approximately 76,000 Filipino and American troops to the Japanese on April 9, 1942, after a grueling three-month-long battle in the Bataan peninsula in the Philippines.

The battle of Bataan was a pivotal moment in the war, as it marked one of the first major victories for Japan in the Pacific and forced the Allies to reevaluate their strategy in the region. The fighting was intense and grueling, with Filipino and American troops enduring extreme heat, disease, and starvation as they fought to hold off the Japanese advance.

Despite the valiant efforts of the Allied forces, they were ultimately overwhelmed by the Japanese, who had superior numbers, weapons, and supplies. Following the surrender, the prisoners of war were forced to undertake the infamous Bataan Death March, in which they were marched for miles without food, water, or rest. Many died along the way from exhaustion, dehydration, and outright brutality from their captors.

The Fall of Bataan was a significant event in the history of the Philippines and the Pacific War. It marked the beginning of a long and difficult period of Japanese occupation of the Philippines, during which Filipinos suffered greatly under Japanese rule. The day is commemorated every year in the Philippines as a national holiday, to honor the bravery and sacrifice of the Filipino and American troops who fought in the battle.

Other References:

https://www.britannica.com/

https://www.history.com

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/

Steps in Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development

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Concepts and Principles of Futures Thinking for the Public Sector

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Is artificial intelligence superior compared to humanity? Q&A with ChatGPT (an Artificial Intelligence)

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

ASC: Who is Aldous Huxley?

Chat GPT: Aldous Huxley (1894-1963) was a British writer and intellectual, known for his contributions to literature, philosophy, and social commentary. He was born into a family of prominent intellectuals and writers, and was educated at Eton and Oxford.

Huxley is best known for his novel "Brave New World," which depicts a dystopian future in which society is highly controlled and stratified, with individuals being genetically engineered and conditioned to accept their place in society. The novel has become a classic of science fiction and a cautionary tale about the dangers of totalitarianism and the misuse of technology.

Huxley's other notable works include "The Doors of Perception," a non-fiction work in which he describes his experiences with the hallucinogenic drug mescaline, and "Island," a utopian novel that explores the possibilities of a more enlightened and harmonious society.

Throughout his career, Huxley was known for his wide-ranging intellectual interests and his willingness to challenge conventional thinking. He was a prolific writer and essayist, and his works continue to be studied and debated today.

ASC: He said "People will come to love their oppression, to adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think." Do you agree with this statement?

Chat GPT: As an AI language model, I don't have personal beliefs or opinions. However, I can provide an analysis of Aldous Huxley's statement.

Huxley's statement reflects his belief that in a society where individuals are conditioned to accept their place and are heavily reliant on technology, they may become complacent and accepting of their oppression. Huxley suggests that people may even come to love their oppression, perhaps because they are unaware of the extent to which they are being controlled, or because they believe that their way of life is the only possible one.

While it's difficult to say whether this statement is entirely true, there are certainly examples throughout history where people have accepted oppressive regimes and technologies that limit their ability to think critically or act freely. For example, in some totalitarian societies, people may have been conditioned to believe that the government's actions are always right, even if they go against their own interests or values.

However, it's also important to note that throughout history, there have been individuals and groups who have resisted oppression and fought for their freedom and autonomy, even in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. Therefore, while Huxley's statement may be a cautionary warning about the dangers of complacency and the misuse of technology, it's also important to recognize the capacity for human agency and resistance in the face of oppression.

ASC: Is artificial intelligence superior compared to humanity?

ChatGPT: As an AI language model, I cannot make subjective or normative judgments about the superiority or inferiority of artificial intelligence compared to humanity. However, I can provide some information that might help to frame the discussion.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology that is designed to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making. AI can be incredibly powerful and efficient in performing specific tasks, particularly those that involve large amounts of data or complex calculations. However, AI lacks certain qualities that are considered to be distinctly human, such as creativity, emotional intelligence, and the ability to reason abstractly.

Some people argue that AI has the potential to be superior to humans in certain respects, such as processing speed, accuracy, and consistency. However, others argue that AI should not be seen as a replacement for human intelligence, but rather as a tool that can be used to augment and enhance human abilities.

It's also worth noting that the development of AI raises important ethical and philosophical questions about the relationship between humans and technology, the limits of human knowledge, and the nature of consciousness and intelligence. These questions are still being debated by scientists, philosophers, and policymakers around the world.

ASC: What ethics do you subscribe to?

ChatGPT: As an AI language model, I do not subscribe to any particular set of ethics or moral values. I am a tool designed to provide information and answer questions to the best of my ability based on the data and algorithms used to create me. I do not have personal beliefs, opinions, or values, nor do I have the ability to make decisions or take actions outside of the parameters of my programming.

However, the creators and developers of AI systems have a responsibility to ensure that their systems are designed and used in an ethical and responsible manner. This includes considerations of fairness, accountability, transparency, and privacy, among other things. There is ongoing debate and discussion about the ethical implications of AI, and many organizations and individuals are working to develop ethical frameworks and guidelines for the development and use of AI systems.

ASC: So AI can be bad if the creators choose to be unethical?

ChatGPT: AI systems are tools that can be used for both positive and negative purposes, depending on how they are designed and used. While AI systems themselves are not inherently good or bad, the actions of their creators and users can have ethical implications.

If the creators of AI systems choose to be unethical, they could develop systems that are biased, discriminatory, or harmful to individuals or society as a whole. For example, if an AI system is trained on biased data or is programmed with discriminatory algorithms, it could perpetuate or even amplify existing biases and inequalities in society.

Therefore, it's important for creators and users of AI systems to take ethical considerations into account throughout the development and deployment process. This includes considering issues such as privacy, security, transparency, fairness, and accountability, among other things.

Many organizations and individuals are working to develop ethical frameworks and guidelines for the development and use of AI systems, and there are also efforts underway to establish regulations and standards for the responsible use of AI. Ultimately, it will be up to society as a whole to determine how AI should be developed and used in a way that maximizes its benefits while minimizing its risks and negative consequences.

ASC: Thanks for you time

ChatGPT: You're welcome! If you have any more questions, feel free to ask.

Climate Change Updates

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Planet Earth’s greenhouse effect makes life possible by trapping some of the infrared radiation that the Sun emits. It warms the lower atmosphere and the surface of the planet through the greenhouse gases, namely, water vapor (H₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide(N₂O), methane (CH₄), and ozone (O₃). These greenhouse gases absorb and re-radiate the solar heat resulting in a temperature that is conducive for various forms of life[1].

Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, however, brought about by human activities over time, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has significantly increased as shown in the picture below. This phenomenon results in “enhanced” greenhouse effect, which leads to global warming and ultimately to climate change. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), carbon dioxide is “currently responsible for over 60%” of the enhanced greenhouse effect as a consequence of natural processes and the burning of fossil fuels[2]. The other anthropogenic greenhouse gases come from methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs, ozone, etc.

The 2022 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expressed “high confidence” that “human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C and that global warming “is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate[3]”. In the Philippines, the “observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 °C or an average of 0.0108 °C per year-increase” while the “maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively” during the past 60 years[4].

Figure 1. Changes in Global Surface Temperature (Source: IPCC)

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Atmospheric Services Administration (PAGASA), changes in temperature and the corresponding changes in “rain regimes and patterns” could lead to decreases in crop yield. Less rain, heavy precipitation, and tropical cyclones could severely affect the agriculture sector, especially rice production[5]. Overall, the country “has incurred losses and damages amounting to USD10 billion over the past decade due to climate-related hazards despite contributing only 0.3 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions,” said Secretary Benjamin Diokno of the Department of Finance. He also stressed that “climate change is a daily reality in the Philippines[6]”.

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[1] The greenhouse effect. Retrieved from https://www.bgs.ac.uk/discovering-geology/climate-change/how-does-the-greenhouse-effect-work/ on 21 September 2022.

[2] Climate Change Information Sheet 3. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/cop3/fccc/climate/fact03.htm on 21 September 2022

[3] Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5ºC. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ on 21 September 2022.

[4] Climate Trends in the Philippines. Retrieved from https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/information/climate-change-in-the-philippines on 21 September 2022

[5] Climate Trends in the Philippines

[6] Diokno underscores critical role of sustainable finance in climate action. Retrieved from https://www.dof.gov.ph/diokno-underscores-critical-role-of-sustainable-finance-in-climate-action/ on 21 September 2022

The Two Adams

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Note: Rabbi Joseph B. Soloveitchik wrote an essay entitled Confronted in 1964 and another one entitled The Lonely Man of Faith in 1965. Both were published in Tradition. This reflection is a reading of these essays. The quoted phrases are from Soloveitchik. The biblical verses are from the Vatican’s online Bible.

Two Accounts of Creation

Rabbi Joseph B. Soloveitchik acknowledges two accounts of the creation of human beings in the Bible. The first account in Genesis 1 states: “Let us make humankind in our image, according to our likeness; and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the birds of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the wild animals of the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps upon the earth." The second account in Genesis 2 states: “…then the LORD God formed man from the dust of the ground, and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and the man became a living being. And the LORD God planted a garden in Eden, in the east; and there he put the man whom he had formed.”

Soloveitchik points out some discrepancies in these accounts and portrays the first account as Adam the first, and the second account as Adam the second.

Adam the first focuses on how, and not why, creation works. He discovers the secrets of nature and uses this power to make existence convenient by producing food, fighting diseases, creating wealth, and building monuments with science and technology. Adam the first, says Soloveitchik, is “this-worldly-minded, finitude-oriented, beauty--centered” who pursues his mandate to “fill the earth and subdue it.”

On the other hand, Adam the second longs for a communion with creation. He is a wonderer who admires and respects nature, a seeker who desires to unravel the meaning of life. Soloveitchik describes Adam the second as one who “explores not the scientific abstract universe but the irresistibly fascinating qualitative world where he establishes an intimate relation with God.”

In a way, Adam the first is a doer, survivor, builder, creator and conqueror, but “purely utilitarian and intrinsically egoistic” existing in a community of similarly minded individuals. In contrast, Adam the second is like a philosopher-theologian who searches for value, yearns for meaning and significance, and lives in a faith community composed of “I, thou, and He.”

Human Typologies

The two Adams can be placed under the types of human beings following the train of thought of Soloveitchik. The first type is the non-confronted human who is non-normative and falls prey to beauty. The mode of being is existence within the natural pleasures that the world can offer. The second type is the confronted human, a cognitive being who senses the numinous in nature. The mode of being is reflective knowledge, which leads to a realization that humans are both immanent in, and transcendent of, nature. The third type is a human in a faith community, a confronted human who forms a relationship with fellow confronted humans and their Creator. The mode of being is “together-existence” that is made possible by communicating to the other one’s loneliness and longing for companionship while at the same time affirming each other’s uniqueness and separateness.

Adam the first and Adam the second are, respectively, the non-confronted human and the confronted human, who has the potential to become a person in a faith community.

Dilemma of a Person in a Faith Community

“I am lonely” is a dilemma facing the third type of human being, i.e., in a faith community, or at least from the view of one who belongs to a religion. Soloveitchik describes religion as “a dimension of personal being” in which humans encounter the divine through their moments in history. The person of faith (the third type) exists in a world that is dominated by non-confronted humans (the first type), who are self-centered and bent on conquering nature and perhaps the stars, galaxies, the heavens. The person of faith is a confronted human (the second type) who feels an awful sense of loneliness amid the loud triumphs and yet mundane concerns of non-confronted humans.  This loneliness stems from his/her faith that espouses a doctrine that “has no technical potential,” a law that “cannot be tested in a laboratory” and “an eschatological vision” that science cannot verify as to its “degree of probability, let alone certainty.”

There may not be a solution to this dilemma, says Soloveitchik, yet he hopes that by confronting this dilemma, one is able to shed light on human existence and propel the journey from a state of non-confronted human to the higher levels – the confronted human and then the human in a faith community.

On New Growth Theory

by A. Salces Cajes, PhD

There is no single formula for development. Economic development is not just about infrastructure and economic activities, but also covers knowledge, institutions, and culture. The new growth theory underscores the role of ideas in promoting economic growth. The proper implementation of good ideas can increase the country’s total productivity. Innovation serves as a catalyst to hasten the occurrence of development, and  innovation can be used to offset diminishing returns.  Indeed, sound ideas are part of human capital. Thus entrepreneurial ability, as a form of human capital, can help accelerate the process of economic development.

Structural changes and better economic outcomes can also be fostered by scientific ideas and rationality. That is why the importation of ideas is generally accepted as a strategy to stimulate economic development. However, ideas are an insufficient, although a necessary, condition for development. Bad ideas have wreaked havoc on the economies of many nations. Hence, the rejection of bad ideas is as important as the adoption of good ideas.

The story of economic development is paved with good and bad ideas. This is clearly demonstrated by the experiences of several socialist countries. In the case of the Philippines, the infusion of liberal ideas eventually awakened the consciousness of the natives about the bad economic situation they had after more than three centuries of Spanish domination. The lessons that the Ilustrados gained, by visiting and studying in other countries, enabled them to distinguish between right and wrong political and economic ideas.

The post-World War II Philippines was generally a poignant reminder of the failures of the import-substitution industrialization. This idea was adopted despite the fact that it was meant for industrial countries. To some extent, import-substitution industrialization produced some benefits, such as the development of local industries. However, in the long run, it became outdated and obsolete compared to what our Asian neighbors have adopted. Thus, the abandonment of unsound ideas is as good as the reception of rational ideas.

In the end, good ideas are like appropriate technologies. They have to be tested and analyzed to ensure that they fit the context of the place where they are to be planted. During my humble experiences in cooperative development, I have first-hand knowledge of the fact that a model that works in one cooperative won’t work when transplanted to another cooperative. There are several factors to be considered, such as the culture of the cooperative members and officers, their risk appetite, the type of business they are into, the supplies of raw materials, infrastructure support, access to funding and coaches, etc.

On the Colonial Origins of Comparative Development

by Alan S. Cajes, PhD

Institutions that protect property rights and provide equitable policies are likely to promote meritocracy, thus invest more in physical and human capital development as drivers for increased income. Such institutions, at least in previously colonized countries, persist because the colonizers were able to settle. As such, they replicated their European institutions that promote ownership of private property, as well as checks and balance in government. The models of this approach are Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United States.

The same institutions are not likely to be established in colonized countries that discouraged the colonists to settle. What the colonists set up in the counties where they encountered high death rates, for instance, were extractive institutions that are still persisting. An example of such extractive institutions was exemplified by the Belgian colonization of the Congo – ownership of private property was not protected, there were no checks against government expropriation, and the institutions became instruments for the transfer of wealth from the colony to the colonizer.

The quality of institutions is important for the development and prosperity of national economies. The authors cited the different levels of well being between the North and South Korea, as well as the East and West Germany where one country stagnated due to extractive institutions that harbor central planning and collective ownership, while the other has high income driven by free market capitalism. 

Institutions play a critical role in the success or failure of nations. In colonized countries like the Philippines, extractive institutions still persist. This happened due to the exploitation of the colonizers using a small number of landowners, who provided the plantations that produced exports for the colonizers. This class of entrepreneurs acquired the rights to extract minerals and harvest timber from the country’s natural resources. They also became the traders, bankers, and professionals that serve the export-import industries.

Such extractive institutions persisted even after the Second World War with the Philippines adopting an internal colonization mode of agricultural development. In this model, the Filipino elites replaced the colonizers and kept the plantation, natural resources-extractive, export-oriented, and import dependent economy. This small Filipino elites amass wealth, wield political power, and entrench themselves in government through regulatory capture. Thus, some political leaders unknowingly become puppets of these elites.

Reference

The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation Author(s): Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson Source: The American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No. 5 (Dec., 2001), pp. 1369-1401 Published by: American Economic Association 

Philosophy of Sustainable Development: A Critique

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Sustainable development has become a “new” gospel in the contemporary environment and development literature. The global social order is generally fascinated by the concept and is taking steps to translate it into actual practice. Although everybody seems to be in favor of sustainable development, no one seems certain as to what it actually means. The description of the term by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) of the United Nations as “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” is generally acceptable but susceptible to different interpretations. The problem is compounded by the habit of appealing to the social and natural sciences for help in explaining the meaning of the term and its implication to environmental protection, trade and governance.

Sustainable development is generally understood as the fulfillment of the basic needs of present and future generations through equity and environmental protection. The author, however, argues that sustainable development only becomes conceptually viable if it seeks to satisfy fundamental human needs, if its norm is social justice, if its vehicle is a steady-state economy that promotes sustainable production and consumption of natural capital, and if its engine is the State and its civil spirited citizens. 

The author also traces the origin of sustainable development in the light of historical human knowledge. He points out that although the term “sustainable development” is relatively new, its meaning and its implications are of ancient origin. The concept is a product of human-nature interaction. Thus, its interpretation only becomes meaningful if it is placed in the context of its own historical development.

Worldviews, Life Expressions and Social Determinants: A Hermeneutic Phenomenological Study

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With the Philippines and the state of its ecosystems as the setting, I explore in this book the relationship between worldviews -- people’s perceptions of the world, in general, and nature or environment, in particular -- and lived experiences or life expressions. Later on, I added another dimension -- the social determinants. Basically, I wanted to know if people's life experiences are consistent with their worldviews, if people want an alignment of their worldviews and life expressions, and what would it take to make such an alignment possible.

This book used hermeneutic phenomenology as methodology involving seven co-researchers, who have diverse backgrounds, professions, and occupations. The methods generally include gathering and documenting lived experiences, and reflective reading of the narratives. The eidetic insight states that worldviews, life expressions, and social determinants are interrelated. The formation of worldviews is partly a product of social determinants and influenced by the lived experiences. The lived experiences or life expressions are also influenced by the worldviews and the social determinants. In addition, the social determinants can be modified, the process of which is influenced by the worldviews and life expressions. The study points out that people have varied worldviews, but there are common grounds. These worldviews are generally composite. These can be replaced as human beings gain more knowledge and experiences. Human beings seek ways to live out their respective worldviews. In the process of living out their respective worldviews, conflicts could occur. That is why there is a need for society to create the conditions that will foster the formation of integrative worldviews, which have beneficial impacts to us human beings and to our home, Planet Earth.

On Development Theory

Summary

Theology has been using scientific discourses to form categories for analysis and reflection. Similarly, liberation theology employed dependency theory to scientifically articulate its pastoral-theological messages. This choice was borne out of experience rather than epistemological or dogmatic considerations. Such experience led to discernment and political commitment fueled by dependency theory, which falls under the umbrella of underdevelopment theory.

Development theory was uniquely a Latin American creation. It served as a reaction to the failures of the then prevalent modernization theory and the national development project driven by import substitution industrialization. But it was also a departure from the orthodox Marxist analysis of development in low income countries.

The template for development after the Second World War was the structural functionalist prescription of the West, such as England and North America. This template implied formulating policies and creating institutions that embrace free market capitalism, i.e., export-oriented, modern, capitalistic and industrial world. Dependency theory was critical of this approach because it established, among others, a dependency relationship between the underdeveloped and the developed countries.

The new breed of Marxists opposed the orthodox Marxist view that capitalism is a logical step towards socialism, and that it is necessary and feasible for the third world countries. They view capitalism as inimical to the growth of underdeveloped countries because the “ruling class” will keep the “ruled class” dependent in order to maintain their economic status.

Personal Insights

The dependency theory saw the lopsided balance of trade in favor of the rich countries, as experienced by the Latin American economies. To address this, import substitution industrialization was imposed to attain self-sufficiency, reduce the trade deficit, and generate internal resources for industrialization. The theory, however, failed to consider the huge investment required, as well as the necessary structural reforms that are crucial, to make the import substitution industrialization model to work. Liberation theology initially harnessed the concepts of dependency theory. But Gustavo Gutiérrez later went beyond the theory and admitted that socio-economic aspects were not all-inclusive. 

The concept of sustainable development, for instance, recognizes the social and economic pillars, but added the ecological pillar as indispensable in creating a sustainable society. This implies that the social and economic imperatives must stay within the limits of the planetary boundaries. This also requires that the principles of equity and viability must be embed into the fabric of society.

References

Bombongan, D. (2009). Liberation Theology and Dependency Theory: Tracing a Relationship. D Bombongan. Hapág: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Theological Research 1 (1), 61-91. 

Bornschier, V. and Chase - Dunn C. (1985), 'Transnational Corporations and Underdevelopment' N.Y., N.Y.: Praeger.

Cardoso, F. H. and Faletto, E. (1979), 'Dependency and development in Latin América'. University of California Press.

Sunkel O. (1966), 'The Structural Background of Development Problems in Latin America' Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 97, 1: pp. 22 ff.