How Philosophy Contributes to Futures
Thinking?
By Alan S. Cajes, PhD[1]
Abstract: Philosophers have discussed at length the concepts of the
past, the present, and the future. For some metaphysicians, the future is real.
For other thinkers, the future is not real. Despite such objection, Futures
Thinking and its various applications are now receiving more attention than
ever before. This trend is primarily pushed by the pandemic that has changed
the landscape of society and organizations. Various organizations use Futures
Thinking in planning and decision making. The author discussed the
contributions of philosophy to Futures Thinking, specifically to the Strategic
Foresight using Scenario Development approach. He also offered suggestions on
how to use AI in Futures Thinking, as well as how Futures Thinking can be used
to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals. The study employed applied
philosophy using critical and analytical thinking. The study showed that
philosophy could add value to the Futures Thinking process by providing
divergent thinking, enriching the development of future scenarios, and avoiding
or minimizing cognitive biases and errors in reasoning.
Key Words: Applied Philosophy, Divergent
Thinking, Futures Thinking, Scenario Development, Strategic Foresight
1. Introduction
Human beings
have fundamental needs that are fulfilled by organizations. These needs include
subsistence, protection, affection,
understanding, and participation.[2] As the States exist to
enable human flourishing,[3] organizations, which are
recognized by and include the instrumentalities of the States, similarly
contribute to the well being of people. Just as States create public value,
organizations also create customer and stakeholder value. An organization is
commonly defined as “a group of people who work together in an organized way
for a shared purpose”.[4] People working in
organizations help in attaining the common goal. In turn, organizations help
the people in meeting their fundamental needs through the payment of wages and
provision of incentives that are designed to improve human competency and
motivation.
To ensure the continued success of organizations, planning and decision
making tools are periodically used. A common tool used by organizations is
strategic planning. This tool helps organizations in analyzing the internal and
external factors that affect their operations or business. The results of the
analysis can be used to formulate short-, medium- and long-term strategies and
tactics to ensure a higher level of performance and success. Futures Thinking does
not replace, but can enhance the strategic planning process.
2. Futures Thinking
Futures Thinking gained prominence during the Cold War when governments
and organizations faced an uncertain future. It is now receiving more attention
than ever largely due to the pandemic, which changed the landscape of society
and organizations. Although some philosophers do not recognize that the future
is real, other thinkers consider it as real. Presentism, for instance, views
the past and future events as nonexistent; hence, only the present exists or
real.[5] A contrary view by
Eternalism argues that “there are such things as merely past and merely future
entities.”[6] For the purpose of this
paper, the author considers the future as “possible to be and possible not to
be.”[7] Thus the future does not
yet exist, but it can be made to exist. The future can be created. The future
that may be created, however, may not be the future as planned. There are
various factors that are beyond the control of the planners, especially in a
world characterized by an accelerating volatility, uncertainty, ambiguity and
complexity (VUCA) or turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity (TUNA).[8]
Futures Thinking refers to the theory and methods used in future studies
or the “study of various and alternative images of the future and the
worldviews and values that support them.”[9] The practical application
of Futures Thinking is Foresight, which “examines emerging threats and
opportunities and uses scenarios to make sense of social change.”[10]
3. Strategic Foresight-Scenario Development
Strategic Foresight using Scenario Development is used in this paper as
a specific practical tool in Futures Thinking and Foresight. It involves the
following key steps:
Formulate the Strategic Challenge and Framing Question. Strategic challenge
refers to an adaptive problem or opportunity that must be addressed by an
organization in the long term, which is normally ten years or beyond. Framing
Question is the statement of the strategic challenge using outside-in-thinking,
which is taking the perspective of the customers and stakeholders to answer the
question: what value should be created by an organization for them? In practical terms, this means that an organization
should ask the customers and stakeholders about their needs, expectations and
requirements rather than interpret these for them.
Analyze the Signals and Drivers of Change. Signals are indicators of the
future that exist in the present. Before the pandemic, there were already
published reports of infections due to the transfer of virus from wildlife
species to humans. Localized lockdowns have also been enforced in affected
areas. Thus it was not farfetched then to imagine the possibility of a global
level lockdown in the future. Signals are linked to Drivers of Change, which
are broad, interrelated and long-term trends that could shape the future in one
way or another. A related example would be the persistent encroachment of
humans on wildlife areas. This driving force is the source of the signal, which
is used to “anticipate a highly uncertain future.”[11]
Develop Plausible Scenarios. Scenarios are perspectives of what the
future might be since a future cannot be created with certainty. There are many
possible futures, but it is hard to describe all the possible scenarios
associated with such futures. Given the limitation of time and resources, developing
two to four plausible scenarios is advisable for most organizations. There are
a number of techniques in developing scenarios. One of the common techniques is
the use of two independent and powerful critical uncertainties to create four
divergent scenarios.
Discuss Implications and Paths. Implications are the effects of the
plausible scenarios or the decisions that organizations must take to navigate
the uncertain futures. Part of the decision making process involves choosing
the pathways to achieve the organization’s desired future. The paths can be
represented by the robust strategies that will help an organization succeed
regardless which of the scenarios (or a combination of the scenarios) might happen
in the future.
4. Artificial Intelligence and Sustainable Development Goals
The United Nations Sustainable Development Group recognizes the
important role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to “accelerate sustainable
development, while mitigating its harms.”[12] AI refers to any software
technology that could “learn from experience, adjust to new inputs and perform
human-like tasks.”[13] The 17 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) are part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development that was adopted by all UN Member States in 2015. The SDGs
represent the “shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the
planet, now and into the future.”[14] A study published in
Nature considers AI as a possible “enabler on 134 targets (79%) across all
SDGs” although “59 targets (35%, also across all SDGs) may experience a
negative impact from the development of AI.”[15]
For this paper, the author used Chat GPT version 4.0 to develop the
future scenarios of the SDGs as presented below.
Scenario 1: "Sustainable
Transformation"
In this optimistic scenario, global
cooperation and commitment to the SDGs lead to significant progress by 2030.
Key Features:
Strong Global Governance:
Countries work together through effective international organizations and
partnerships to address global challenges.
Technological Innovation:
Breakthroughs in clean energy, sustainable agriculture, and healthcare
technology drive progress.
Inclusive Policies: Governments
implement inclusive policies that reduce inequality, improve education, and
ensure gender equality.
Climate Action: Decisive
actions are taken to mitigate climate change, resulting in significant
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Economic Growth: Sustainable
economic practices lead to steady growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.
Scenario 2: "Fragmented Progress"
In this scenario, progress on the SDGs is
uneven, with some regions and goals advancing more than others.
Key Features:
Regional Disparities: Progress varies
significantly between regions, with developed countries and some emerging
economies making more headway than others.
Technological Gaps: Access to
technology and innovation is uneven, leading to disparities in healthcare,
education, and economic opportunities.
Partial Climate Action: Climate action
is inconsistent, with some countries and sectors reducing emissions while
others lag behind.
Inequality: Economic
inequality persists, both within and between countries.
Scenario 3: "Status Quo Stagnation"
In this more pessimistic scenario, the world
fails to make significant changes, and progress on the SDGs stagnates.
Key Features:
Weak Governance: International
cooperation is limited, and global governance structures are ineffective.
Slow Technological Adoption:
Innovation occurs, but it is not widely adopted or equitably distributed.
Minimal Climate Action: Efforts to
combat climate change are insufficient, leading to increased environmental
degradation.
Persistent Inequality: Social and
economic inequalities remain largely unaddressed.
Scenario 4: "Regressive Setback"
In this worst-case scenario, global crises and
conflicts lead to setbacks in achieving the SDGs.
Key Features:
Global Crises: Economic
downturns, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts disrupt progress.
Technological Disruption:
Technological advancements are overshadowed by misuse or lack of access,
leading to greater disparities.
Environmental Catastrophe: Climate
change accelerates, resulting in severe weather events, loss of biodiversity,
and resource scarcity.
Social Unrest: Increasing
inequality and resource shortages lead to social unrest and instability.[16]
AI can facilitate the thinking process in developing the scenarios of
the future and identifying the Signal and Drivers. However, the information
derived from AI can be corrected and improved by the participants of the
scenario building activities. Those with backgrounds in philosophy and related
fields of specialization would add value to the workshop process and the
outputs.
5. Contributions of Philosophy to Futures Thinking
Thinking about the futures requires a combination of hindsight (pag-unawa sa nakaraan), insight (arok ng pag-iisip) and foresight (pananaw sa kinabukasan). A multi- and
inter-disciplinary approach is therefore needed to frame the strategic
challenge or opportunity, process the signals and drivers, enrich the
scenarios, as well as choose the options, pathways and the robust strategies. Thus
Philosophy and philosophers contribute in various ways, such as by:
- Formulating the framing question using outside-in-thinking rather than inside-out-thinking;
- Critically and rigorously analyzing the signals and drivers that are likely to shape the future of society and organizations;
- Surfacing and questioning the underlying assumptions of the scenarios;
- Analyzing arguments to ensure sound reasoning by detecting and avoiding fallacies and cognitive biases;
- Pointing out and resolving ethical dilemmas and moral implications of the scenarios, options, strategies, including the use of AI and other sources of information;
- Creatively imagining divergent and plausible scenarios by being scenarists or futurists; and
- Choosing the best possible or robust strategies using a sound analysis of data, information, inputs and alternatives.
6. Conclusion
Philosophers can harness Philosophy and its related disciplines to enhance
Futures Thinking through sound reasoning (avoiding fallacies and cognitive
biases), ensuring rigorous analysis of data and information, creatively
imagining divergent futures, surfacing and questioning the underlying
assumptions of the scenarios, detecting and addressing the ethical and moral
implications of pathways and strategies, as well as critically examining the
use of AI and related tools. The discipline can also enrich the crafting of the
philosophy of organizations as they chart their future and contribute to the
well-being of people and nations.
REFERENCES
Aligica, Paul D. “Analytic Narratives and
Scenario Building.” Futures Research Quarterly 19-2. 2003, pp. 57-71.
Development Academy of the Philippines, UP
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Fukuyama, Francis. eds. Blindside: How to
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Global Business Network. Scenarios: An
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Kahn, Herman. Thinking about the Unthinkable.
New York: Horizon Press, 1962.
Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View. New
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UN General Assembly (UNGA).
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Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters
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______. “Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.”
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[1] Senior Executive Fellow and
Vice President, Development Academy of the Philippines; Member, American
Association for the Advancement of Science; Member, Society of Applied
Philosophy; Associate Member, National Research Council of the Philippines
[2] See Max-Neef, Manfred A.
Human Scale Development Application and Further Reflections. New York: The Apex
Press, 1991
[3] Derived from Aristotle’s
term eudaimonia that is commonly translated as happiness or welfare.
[4] Cambridge Dictionary.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/organization
[5] Ingram, David and Jonathan
Tallant, "Presentism", The Stanford Encyclopedia of
Philosophy (Winter 2023 Edition), Edward N. Zalta & Uri
Nodelman (eds.), URL =
<https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2023/entries/presentism/>.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Thomas Aquinas used this
phrase within the context of possibility and necessity. Claro Ceniza, who was
the author’s professor in Advanced Metaphysics at the University of Santo Tomas
Graduate School, employed it to describe the difference between contingent and
necessary beings.
[8] See VUCA World.
https://www.vuca-world.org/vuca-bani-rupt-tuna/
[9] Asian Development Bank.
Futures Thinking in in Asia and the Pacific Why Foresight Matters for Policy
Makers. ADB: Mandaluyong, April 2020. p. 3
[10] Ibid., p. 5
[11] Institute For The Future.
Signals. https://legacy.iftf.org/what-we-do/foresight-tools/signals/
[12] Remarks of the UN Deputy
Secretary General entitled “Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable
Development Goals” on 8 May 2024. UNSDG.
https://unsdg.un.org/latest/announcements/harnessing-artificial-intelligence-sustainable-development-goals-sdgs
[13] SAS.
https://www.sas.com/en_us/insights/analytics/what-is-artificial-intelligence.html#:~:text=Artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20makes%20it,learning%20and%20natural%20language%20processing.
[14] UN Department of Economic
and Social Affairs. https://sdgs.un.org/goals
[15] Vinuesa, R., Azizpour, H.,
Leite, I. et al. The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals. Nat Commun 11, 233 (2020).
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14108-y
[16] OpenAI.
(2023). ChatGPT (Mar 14 version) [Large language model]. https://chat.openai.com/chat
